Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Gaylord, MI

760 
WWUS34 KAPX 111603
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1203 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIC113-165-111645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-110511T1645Z/
WEXFORD MI-MISSAUKEE MI-
1203 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MISSAUKEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN WEXFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1155 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MITCHELL STATE PARK...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF CADILLAC...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LAKE CITY...LUCAS...JENNINGS...MCBAIN...FALMOUTH...VOGEL CENTER...
  MODDERSVILLE AND MERRITT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 8554 4432 8550 4447 8487 4415 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 261DEG 16KT 4418 8541
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$


ARNOTT

340 
WWUS34 KAPX 111624
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1224 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIC113-165-111635-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-110511T1645Z/
WEXFORD MI-MISSAUKEE MI-
1224 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MISSAUKEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
WEXFORD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4416 8554 4432 8550 4447 8487 4415 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 261DEG 16KT 4419 8528
WIND...HAIL <50MPH <.50IN

$$


ARNOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1123 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/

A COUPLE OF WARM DAYS ARE AHEAD FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST...WILL BRING
THE WARM AIR TO THE REGION. WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO INCREASING...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

JZ

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1052 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

QUITE A BIT GOING ON ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH A
DECAYING MCS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS...WAKE LOWS AND SEICHES ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND SPOT FORECASTS.
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TRYING TO WORK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME AS
IT MOVES AWAY FROM BEST INSTABILITY AXIS /MUCAPES OF 1-2K NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE/. DRYING EVIDENT ON THE NORTHWEST BACKEGE
OF PCPN SHIELD ON MQT/APX RADARS AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CARRY PCPN TOWARD THE LAKE
HURON COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
POPS/INTENSITY.

STRONG RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET EVIDENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF MCS
WITH WAKE LOW CREATING WINDS GUSTS NEAR 50KTS OVER PORTIONS OF
UPPER MICHIGAN /48KT GUST AT ANJ THIS PAST HOUR/. THIS WAKE LOW
AND STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLY PRODUCING A SEICHE OVER WHITEFISH
BAY. WILL NOT TRY TO HANDLE THIS SHORT FUSE FEATURE/WINDS IN GRIDS
AND INSTEAD HANDLE IT WITH LAKE SHORE FLOOD WARNINGS AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS.

BIG QUESTION MARK FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLOUD
CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THINS OUT. CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABLY A BIT OPTIMISTIC GIVEN EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WILL TREND LOWER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH SUNSHINE. WILL TEMPER
THESE READINGS A BIT GIVEN EARLY RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY GO
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. IF CLOUDS THIN MORE
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPS HIGHER.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON? NOT MUCH TO REALLY HANG YOUR
HAT ON AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. WITH AXIS OF IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /2000+/ AND TIGHT 850MB
THETA-E GRADIENT JUST WEST OF THE AREA...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
FIRE OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS.  WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF
I-75 FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NO
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AFTER THIS INTIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ENDS.

JK

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SHORTWAVE BREAKS OFF THE PARENT 500 MB
LOW HEADING OUT OF COLORADO AND MOVES UP THE RIDGE, FLATTENING IT
A BIT AND HELPING TO DRIVE THE NORTHERN SFC LOW TO NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 06Z. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER WITH THIS UPPER
AIR SUPPORT, LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOST LIKELY A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE IN MINNESOTA AND MOVE EAST AS ANOTHER
MCS. MODELS EXPECT THAT THIS IMPACT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF WHERE THE
CURRENT MCS IS THIS MORNING. SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS.

THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLD
FRONT LAYS OUT FROM THE SFC LOW NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE WARM FRONT AND 500 MB RIDGE WHICH
SHOULD BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE 500 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO FILL AND STAY ALONG THE SUB TROPICAL JET.
IT DOESN'T LIFT OUT, BUT INSTEAD CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WITH IT, BEGINS TO PULL
THE SFC FRONT AND THE SOUTHERN OF THE SFC LOWS WITH IT. THE
NORTHERN SFC LOW IS BEGINNING TO FILL AS WELL SO THAT THERE IS A
GENERAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY ACROSS
MICHIGAN AND DOWN TO KMCI. THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN E UPPER, AND WITH THE SHOWALTER INDICES RANGING FROM 0C
TO -2C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN N LOWER. THE SFC TROUGH CONTINUES MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
WITH THE 500 MB LOW NOW SPLITTING INTO TWO. ONE IN MISSOURI AND
ONE IN NORTH DAKOTA. A 500 MB RIDGE IS TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL BEGIN TO FORCES THE MORE
STABLE AIR SOUTH SO THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MOST SOUTHERN OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS HAS SO MUCH QPF, THAT IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS
SUFFERING FROM SOME FEED BACK ISSUES ESPECIALLY BY 12Z/SAT. THE
ECMWF LOOKS LIKE IT IS A LITTLE CLEANER AND WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
50 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND DRY OUT E UPPER OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...DIDN'T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE AS
THE ECMWF IS FOLLOWING ALONG WITH WHAT THE GOING FORECAST IS. ALSO
THE GFS IS A LITTLE LAGGING, BUT IS BEGINNING TO DRY THINGS OUT BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SO WE WILL GO INTO A COOLER PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP BEGINS ABOUT MID
NEXT WEEK.

JSL

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 341 AM/

GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR
TODAY...THOUGH SOME LOCAL EFFECTS WILL IMPACT WIND DIRECTIONS
IN SPOTS (E.G., THROUGH THE STRAITS WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
EASTERLY). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER GOING INTO THURSDAY AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.

JPB/JSL

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 722 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

IN THE SHORT TERM HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO HIT PLN AND TVC BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE,
EXPECTING THAT THIS WILL RUN OUT OF STEAM AND NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO
APN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN ACTION FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT.

JSL

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1129 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
121830-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1129 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY
EXITS THE OUTLOOK AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

AN AREA OF GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF
MITT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
THESE WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A LOCALIZED RISE AND FALL OF LAKE
LEVELS /SEICHE/...ESPECIALLY IN WHITEFISH BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY BUT SPOTTERS PLEASE RELAY
ANY LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
952 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HAIL             1 S MANISTEE            44.23N 86.33W
05/11/2011  M0.50 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

SCHWARTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1025 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIZ008-015>019-112030-
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE...
PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...CHARLEVOIX
1025 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...STRONG WINDS TO FOLLOW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 1022 AM DOPPLER RADAR AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CHEBOYGAN SOUTHWEST
TO BOYNE CITY. WITHIN THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS...GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE. AS THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEPARTS...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
ADDITIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ARNOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1126 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIZ008-015-112030-
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1126 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

AT 1125 AM DOPPLER RADAR AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A
REGION OF STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 1 PM BEFORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE.

PLEASE SEEK STURDY SHELTER AS THESE WINDS ARRIVE!

ARNOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1136 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 AM     HAIL             10 W CADILLAC           44.25N  85.62W
05/11/2011  E0.70 INCH       WEXFORD            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100349

BERGER