Alert archive / Michigan / Flash Flood Warnings in 2011

Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

May 11, 2011Manistee County, Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this flash flood warning at May 11, 2011, 12:01 PM EDT for Manistee County, Michigan. It was in force for 14 hr. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 11, 2011, 12:01 PM EDT (16:01 UTC)
Expired
May 12, 2011, 2:00 AM EDT
In force
14 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Manistee County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 11, 12:14 PM EDTFLASH FLOODManistee, MISTREET FLOODING...WATER ON STREETS OVER CURBS.
May 11, 4:24 PM EDTFLASH FLOODManistee, MIREPORTS OF LOCAL ROAD FLOODING THROUGHOUT COUNTY.
May 11, 9:15 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.44Manistee, MI12 HOUR TOTAL THRU 9 PM.
May 11, 10:00 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 4.655 Ssw Brethren, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 10 PM. PEA SIZED HAIL FELL AROUND 1 PM...HALF-INCH DIAMTER HAIL FELL AROUND 5 PM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2011-05-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2011-05-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 102 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
782 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

381 
WGUS53 KAPX 111601
FFWAPX
MIC101-112200-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0003.110511T1601Z-110511T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1201 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MANISTEE COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT WEDNESDAY

* AT 1157 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
  WARNED AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND BACK INTO CENTRAL LAKE
  MICHIGAN...WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO TRAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
  AND CENTRAL MANISTEE COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  RADAR
  RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 
  MID MORNING.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  MANISTEE...BRETHREN...EASTLAKE...KALEVA...NORWALK...ONEKAMA...
  ORCHARD BEACH STATE PARK AND PARKDALE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
  BEAR CREEK
  HANSEN CREEK
  BOSWELL CREEK
  MANISTEE RIVER
  LITTLE MANISTEE RIVER
  MCGOWAN CREEK
  CHICKEN CREEK
  CEDAR CREEK
  BIG BEAVER CREEK
  CLAYBANK CREEK
  PINE CREEK
  LEMON CREEK
  GURNEY CREEK
  MAGOON CREEK
  SICKLE CREEK

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 4428 8633 4435 8628 4441 8626 4441 8589
      4427 8596 4417 8612 4418 8639

$$


JPB
5 follow-up statements
203 
WGUS73 KAPX 111740
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
140 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIC101-112200-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110511T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MANISTEE MI-
140 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANISTEE COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 136 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 
THE WARNED AREA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS MORE SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE WARNED AREA. THIS WILL EXACERBATE 
ONGOING FLASH FLOODING.  

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MANISTEE...BRETHREN...EASTLAKE...KALEVA...NORWALK...ONEKAMA...ORCHARD
BEACH STATE PARK AND PARKDALE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...  BEAR CREEK
  HANSEN CREEK
  BOSWELL CREEK
  MANISTEE RIVER
  LITTLE MANISTEE RIVER
  MCGOWAN CREEK
  CHICKEN CREEK
  CEDAR CREEK
  BIG BEAVER CREEK
  CLAYBANK CREEK
  PINE CREEK
  LEMON CREEK
  GURNEY CREEK
  MAGOON CREEK
  SICKLE CREEK


LAT...LON 4428 8633 4435 8628 4441 8626 4441 8589
      4427 8596 4417 8612 4418 8639

$$



ARNOTT
871 
WGUS73 KAPX 112019
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
419 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIC101-112200-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110511T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MANISTEE MI-
419 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANISTEE COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AREA 
OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST AS MUCH AS SIX 
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.  RADAR ALSO INDICATES ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE...MANISTEE...BRETHREN...EASTLAKE...KALEVA...NORWALK...
ONEKAMA...ORCHARD BEACH STATE PARK AND PARKDALE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
BEAR CREEK...HANSEN CREEK...BOSWELL CREEK...MANISTEE RIVER...LITTLE 
MANISTEE RIVER...MCGOWAN CREEK...CHICKEN CREEK...CEDAR CREEK...BIG 
BEAVER CREEK...PODUNK CREEK...LITTLE BEAVER CREEK...HALLS 
CREEK...CLAYBANK CREEK...PINE CREEK...LEMON CREEK...GURNEY 
CREEK...MAGOON CREEK AND SICKLE CREEK.

LAT...LON 4428 8633 4435 8628 4441 8626 4441 8589
      4427 8596 4417 8612 4418 8639

$$



ARNOTT
218 
WGUS53 KAPX 112146
FFWAPX
MIC101-120600-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110512T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
546 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MANISTEE COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 200 AM EDT THURSDAY

* VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MANISTEE COUNTY
  DURING THE DAY.  RADAR ESTIMATES AND STORM SPOTTERS INDICATE
  IN EXCESS OF SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SOUTH OF NINE MILE 
  ROAD.  RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL 
  THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN POISED TO BRING EVEN
  MORE RAINFALL TO THE WARNED AREA TONIGHT.  SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF
  RAIN MAY FALL TONIGHT...WHICH WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
  AND MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
  INCLUDE...MANISTEE... BRETHREN...EASTLAKE...KALEVA...NORWALK...
  ONEKAMA...ORCHARD BEACH STATE PARK AND PARKDALE.

SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
BEAR CREEK
HANSEN CREEK
BOSWELL CREEK
MANISTEE RIVER
LITTLE MANISTEE RIVER
MCGOWAN CREEK
CEDAR CREEK
BIG BEAVER CREEK
CLAYBANK CREEK
PINE CREEK
LEMON CREEK
GURNEY CREEK
MAGOON CREEK
SICKLE CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.  DO NOT DRIVE 
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.  BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS 
AFTER DARK...WHEN THE DANGERS OF FLOODING BECOME HARDER TO RECOGNIZE.

&&

LAT...LON 4428 8633 4435 8628 4441 8626 4441 8589
      4427 8596 4417 8612 4418 8639

$$


JPB
878 
WGUS73 KAPX 120001
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
801 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIC101-120600-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110512T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MANISTEE MI-
801 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANISTEE COUNTY
UNTIL 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MANISTEE COUNTY THIS 
EVENING.  RADAR ESTIMATES AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE RAINFALL 
TOTALS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANISTEE 
COUNTY SOUTH OF NINE MILE ROAD.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
IMPACT THE WARNED AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL 
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING...AND LIKELY RESULT 
IN NEW AREAS OF RAPID FLOODING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...MANISTEE... 
BRETHREN...EASTLAKE...KALEVA...NORWALK...ONEKAMA ...ORCHARD BEACH 
STATE PARK AND PARKDALE.

SEVERAL ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANISTEE 
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AS NIGHT APPROACHES...WHEN IT IS HARDER TO 
RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING.  AVOID DRIVING INTO AREAS WHERE 
WATER COVERS THE ROAD...ESTIMATING THE DEPTH OF THE WATER WILL BE 
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN THE DARK.  SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER AT A 
DEPTH OF ONLY SIX INCHES CAN FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES.  DO NOT STAY IN 
AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4428 8633 4435 8628 4441 8626 4441 8589
      4427 8596 4417 8612 4418 8639

$$


JPB
111 
WGUS73 KAPX 120225
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIC101-120600-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110512T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MANISTEE MI-
1025 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANISTEE COUNTY
UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

AT 1018 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED ADDITIONAL 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MANISTEE COUNTY. 
RADAR ESTIMATES AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAIN 
TOTALED 5 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 
TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO EXACERBATE 
ONGOING FLOODING...AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN NEW AREAS OF FLASH 
FLOODING. 

RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAIN COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL 
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE 
FLOODING INCLUDE...MANISTEE...BRETHREN...EASTLAKE...KALEVA...
NORWALK...ONEKAMA...ORCHARD BEACH STATE PARK...AND PARKDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. NEVER 
DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD...AS ESTIMATING THE 
DEPTH OF WATER WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER AT 
A DEPTH OF JUST 6 INCHES CAN FLOAT MOST AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT STAY IN 
AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4428 8633 4435 8628 4441 8626 4441 8589
      4427 8596 4417 8612 4418 8639

$$

LAWRENCE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 11, 8:30 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX90 min
May 11, 8:39 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX96 min
May 11, 9:09 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee66 min
May 11, 9:35 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX55 min
May 11, 9:42 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX93 min
May 11, 10:12 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningAPXBenzie3 hr
May 11, 10:19 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXGrand Traverse, Kalkaska, Manistee, Wexford41 min
May 11, 10:33 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX117 min
May 11, 10:38 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX112 min
May 11, 11:01 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX89 min
May 11, 11:02 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningAPXManistee, Wexford3 hr
May 11, 11:14 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX91 min
May 11, 11:15 AM EDTCoastal Flood WarningAPX105 min
May 11, 11:38 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXMissaukee, Wexford46 min
May 11, 11:41 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee64 min
May 11, 12:31 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX119 min
May 11, 12:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee61 min
May 11, 1:12 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX93 min
May 11, 1:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee35 min
May 11, 1:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee, Wexford59 min
May 11, 1:59 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningAPXManistee, Wexford12 hr
May 11, 2:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee48 min
May 11, 2:35 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX85 min
May 11, 4:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee64 min
May 11, 5:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee, Wexford56 min
May 11, 6:34 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX97 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2011Every flash flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.