Winter Storm Warning 9, NWS Juneau, AK

169 
WWAK47 PAJK 140745
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1045 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

AKZ019-140900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
1045 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT. 

* LOCATION...HAINES AND THE HAINES HIGHWAY.

* SNOW...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL 2 
  TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING A STORM TOTAL 
  SNOWFALL 5 TO 12 INCHES. 

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW OF 8.7 INCHES WAS RPORTED IN HAINES 
  BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH 
  THROUGH MIDNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...VERY POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND 
  EXTREMELY POOR DRIVING DUE TO RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 AM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ025-141400-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0024.111114T0745Z-111114T1400Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
1045 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
MONDAY.

* LOCATION...JUNEAU BUROUGH

* SNOW...SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR. A TOTAL OF 3 TO 5
  INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY 5 AM.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BECOME HAZARDOUSE WITH POOR VISIBILTY AND
  SLIPPERY ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

618 
WWAK47 PAJK 140844
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1144 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

AKZ019-140945-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
1144 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT. 

HAINES COOP REPORTED 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 3 PM TO 930 PM AKST.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ025-141400-
/X.UPG.PAJK.WW.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-111114T1400Z/
/X.EXB.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-111114T1400Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
1144 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...JUNEAU BOROUGH

* SNOW...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR. A SNOWFALL TOTAL
  OF 6 TO 9 INCHES.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND
  SLIPPERY ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER
CONTENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

BECKER

576 
WWAK47 PAJK 141327
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
427 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

AKZ025-141800-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-111114T1800Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
427 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING. 

* LOCATION...JUNEAU BOROUGH NORTH OF TAKU INLET

* SNOW...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. 8 TO 10
  INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. A STORM TOTAL TOTAL OF 10 TO
  18 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

* TIMING...UNTIL MONDAY MORNING

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS WITH POOR
  VISIBILITY AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. TRAVEL ON ROADS WILL BE SLOW
  DUE POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO TRAVEL TO YOUR
  DESTINATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER
CONTENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

098 
WWAK47 PAJK 141745
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
845 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

AKZ025-141845-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-111114T1800Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
845 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. 

SNOW HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SNOWFALL OF UP TO 11 INCHES WAS
REPORTED IN THE AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WARNING OR ADVISORY
AT THAT TIME. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POTENTIAL
STATEMENTS FOR TONIGHT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
334 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND MON. FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA MON. ARCTIC FRONT WILL DRIFT
SWD INTO THE FAR NRN PANHANDLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN
OVER THE FAR NRN AREA THRU MON.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP TYPE. ATTM
STRONGEST BAND OF WLY WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE
CENTRAL OUTER COAST. EXPECT THIS BAND TO REMAIN THERE INTO MON BUT
A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP STORM GOING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALES IN
SURROUNDING GULF ZONES. FOR THE INNER CHANNELS...WILL KEEP GALE
FOR CROSS SOUND AND WRN END OF ICY STRAIT...WITH SCA FOR THE SRN
INNER CHANNELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART BUT AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF SCA WINDS IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. THE SCA GOING ON IN
LYNN CANAL ATTM SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AND 1000-850
THICKNESS...SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED BUT SOME MIXED PRECIP IS
LIKELY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
SO ONLY THE FAR SRN AREA SHOULD STILL SEE MIXED PRECIP BY LATE
TONIGHT. ON MON THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO SLOWLY BACK OVER
THE GULF SO SOME MODERATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL TEMPS IS
LIKELY...SO MORE RAIN SHOULD MIX IN FURTHER TO THE N
MON...PROBABLY AS FAR N AS THE FREDERICK SOUND AREA.

OTHERWISE...GIVEN SHOWERY NATURE OF PRECIP...NAILING DOWN SNOW
ACCUMS WILL BE TRICKY. THINK MOST AREAS THAT REMAIN ALL SNOW WILL
SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES THRU MON BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR THE MOST. POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL
FOR MOST AREAS BUT FOR THE FAR N WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM...A TWO STEP COOLING TREND SET TO OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST BEGINNING TO OCCUR DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIODS ABOVE
AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. THE SECOND STEP IN THE COOLING
TREND IS A LARGE SCALE ARCTIC OUTBREAK BEGINNING TUE NIGHT.
PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE PACKAGE HAVE BEEN FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WED WILL BE SLOW TO
LOSE CLOUD COVER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT A 500 MB
TROUGH WILL BE CONTINUING TO EXTEND S FM OVER PAMD AND SUPPORTING
A 995 MB LOW ABOUT 100 NM S OF PAYA WITH A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION.
THIS LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT MIDDLE AND UPPER
CLOUD CIGS THAT WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN A N TO S SEQUENCE
WED THROUGH THU.

BOTH THE EC AND NAM WERE USED. FOR 00Z WED THE IN THE GULF THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE EC/NAM/UK. EC IS ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER TO WEAKEN THE ARCTIC HIGH IN YUKON TRRTY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ042-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-041-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/JBT