Gale Warning 412, NWS Juneau, AK

196 
FZAK51 PAJK 140647 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-141600-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
STRONG WEST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH
MONDAY.  A STRONG OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  

$$

PKZ011-141600-
GLACIER BAY-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.THU...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-141600-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-141600-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-141600-
ICY STRAIT-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF GLACIER BAY.
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-141600-
CROSS SOUND-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-141600-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-141600-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-141600-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. STRONGER W WIND TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
5 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-141600-
FREDERICK SOUND-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-141600-
SUMNER STRAIT-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. STRONGER W WIND
TO 40 KT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-141600-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
946 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
334 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND MON. FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA MON. ARCTIC FRONT WILL DRIFT
SWD INTO THE FAR NRN PANHANDLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN
OVER THE FAR NRN AREA THRU MON.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP TYPE. ATTM
STRONGEST BAND OF WLY WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE
CENTRAL OUTER COAST. EXPECT THIS BAND TO REMAIN THERE INTO MON BUT
A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP STORM GOING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALES IN
SURROUNDING GULF ZONES. FOR THE INNER CHANNELS...WILL KEEP GALE
FOR CROSS SOUND AND WRN END OF ICY STRAIT...WITH SCA FOR THE SRN
INNER CHANNELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART BUT AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF SCA WINDS IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. THE SCA GOING ON IN
LYNN CANAL ATTM SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AND 1000-850
THICKNESS...SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED BUT SOME MIXED PRECIP IS
LIKELY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
SO ONLY THE FAR SRN AREA SHOULD STILL SEE MIXED PRECIP BY LATE
TONIGHT. ON MON THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO SLOWLY BACK OVER
THE GULF SO SOME MODERATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL TEMPS IS
LIKELY...SO MORE RAIN SHOULD MIX IN FURTHER TO THE N
MON...PROBABLY AS FAR N AS THE FREDERICK SOUND AREA.

OTHERWISE...GIVEN SHOWERY NATURE OF PRECIP...NAILING DOWN SNOW
ACCUMS WILL BE TRICKY. THINK MOST AREAS THAT REMAIN ALL SNOW WILL
SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES THRU MON BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR THE MOST. POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL
FOR MOST AREAS BUT FOR THE FAR N WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM...A TWO STEP COOLING TREND SET TO OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST BEGINNING TO OCCUR DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIODS ABOVE
AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. THE SECOND STEP IN THE COOLING
TREND IS A LARGE SCALE ARCTIC OUTBREAK BEGINNING TUE NIGHT.
PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE PACKAGE HAVE BEEN FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WED WILL BE SLOW TO
LOSE CLOUD COVER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT A 500 MB
TROUGH WILL BE CONTINUING TO EXTEND S FM OVER PAMD AND SUPPORTING
A 995 MB LOW ABOUT 100 NM S OF PAYA WITH A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION.
THIS LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT MIDDLE AND UPPER
CLOUD CIGS THAT WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN A N TO S SEQUENCE
WED THROUGH THU.

BOTH THE EC AND NAM WERE USED. FOR 00Z WED THE IN THE GULF THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE EC/NAM/UK. EC IS ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER TO WEAKEN THE ARCTIC HIGH IN YUKON TRRTY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ042-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-041-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/JBT