Gale Warning 414, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 14, 2011, 11:05 AM AKST (20:05 UTC)

Expired

Nov 14, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

837 
FZAK51 PAJK 142005 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-150100-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
STRONG WEST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH
MONDAY.  A STRONG OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  

$$

PKZ011-150100-
GLACIER BAY-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.THU...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-150100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.THU...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-150100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN...
SNOW.
.THU...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-150100-
ICY STRAIT-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-150100-
CROSS SOUND-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. W SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-150100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-150100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-150100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-150100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-150100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-150100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1105 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 14, 6:09 AM AKST, 4 hours 56 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
609 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...AN EXTENDED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WEST TO COOK
INLET. THERE IS SMALL LOWS ON THIS THROUGH THAT ARE RUNNING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ONE OF THEM MOVED ACROSS THE
JUNEAU AREA AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO
4 AM RESULTED IN ABOUT 10 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER NIGHT.
ANOTHER FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE YET IN THE MORNING SO THE HEAVY
SNOW WARNING WAS EXTENDED TO 9 AM.

THE SHORT WAVES/IMPULSES ARE LOCALIZING THE SNOW BANDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE MAKING THE FORECASTING OF AMOUNTS A LITTLE
DIFFICULT.

SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THE WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
HOWEVER ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING WITH WINDS NOW ONLY 35 KT THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO DRIFT SOUTH WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST CANADA.

SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...TUESDAY STARTS OFF WITH A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
THE PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER STRONGER LOW
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE WEST TUESDAY EVENING. BOTH
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND PRECIP CHANCES...HOWEVER
THE SECOND LOW WILL BRING WITH IT MORE MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SET UP TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BOARDER AND YAKUTAT AND REMAIN STATIONARY. BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
INITIALLY SEE SNOW THEN AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH
THE FRONT SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL MIX
WITH RAIN INCLUDE FROM ELFIN COVE SOUTH AND MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. JUNEAU AREA
WILL BE TRICKY...850MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM FROM -10C TUES
AFTERNOON TO -5C WED MORNING BEFORE COOLING AGAIN. THEREFORE HAVE
INCLUDED SNOW FOR TUES NIGHT AND ADDED IN MIXING WITH RAIN FOR
WED. GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
AREAS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES...RANGING FROM 3-7IN ACROSS THE
NORTH FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL 2-4IN THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AND
1-3IN ACCUM OVER THE SOUTH. THESE AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH WED EVENING INTO THURS AS THE LOW
MOVES SEWRD. THIS WILL CAUSE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO TURN OFFSHORE
DECREASING PRECIP FURTHER. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THE
STRENGTHENING ARCTIC COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND GALES THROUGH OTHER
INSIDE CHANNELS FOR WED AND THURS. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH
PASSES AND GAPS IN THE MOUNTAINS OPEN TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING BUT
NOT LIMITED TO DISENCHANTMENT BAY IN YAKUTAT BAY AND CHILKAT AND
TAIYA VALLEYS.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AS CAA OUT
OF THE NORTH CONTINUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SUNDAY WILL SEE A
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COASTAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW.

THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE TUES/WED LOW AND WHEN/HOW IT MOVES SOUTH. THE
GENERAL IDEA OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND LIKELY PRECIP
ARE SIMILAR. DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS...AS WELL AS TIMING OF WINDS
SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION
FOR PRESSURE WITH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT ABOUT AVERAGE. TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS FOR PRECIP HOWEVER AS IT INITIALIZED TODAYS SNOW THE
BEST.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.