Winter Storm Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

541 
WWAK47 PAJK 150740
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1040 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

AKZ021-022-024>026-151400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-111115T1400Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
1040 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

* SNOW...6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
  RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE DUE TO HIGH WATER
CONTENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ020-151400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-111115T1400Z/
GLACIER BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GUSTAVUS
1040 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

* SNOW...3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
  RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ017-019-151400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.A.0003.111116T0300Z-111116T1200Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...HAINES
1040 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* SNOW...SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP DURING TUESDAY EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BECOME DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WINTER STORM CONDITIONS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

680 
WWAK47 PAJK 151305
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

AKZ021-022-024>026-151415-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-111115T1400Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
405 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

SNOWFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ020-151415-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-111115T1400Z/
GLACIER BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GUSTAVUS
405 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

SNOWFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS
EVENT.

$$

AKZ017-019-160215-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.A.0003.111116T0300Z-111116T1200Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...HAINES
405 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

* SNOW...SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP DURING TUESDAY EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BECOME DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WINTER STORM CONDITIONS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
609 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...AN EXTENDED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WEST TO COOK
INLET. THERE IS SMALL LOWS ON THIS THROUGH THAT ARE RUNNING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ONE OF THEM MOVED ACROSS THE
JUNEAU AREA AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO
4 AM RESULTED IN ABOUT 10 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER NIGHT.
ANOTHER FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE YET IN THE MORNING SO THE HEAVY
SNOW WARNING WAS EXTENDED TO 9 AM.

THE SHORT WAVES/IMPULSES ARE LOCALIZING THE SNOW BANDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE MAKING THE FORECASTING OF AMOUNTS A LITTLE
DIFFICULT.

SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THE WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
HOWEVER ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING WITH WINDS NOW ONLY 35 KT THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO DRIFT SOUTH WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST CANADA.

SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF OR ENDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...TUESDAY STARTS OFF WITH A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
THE PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER STRONGER LOW
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE WEST TUESDAY EVENING. BOTH
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND PRECIP CHANCES...HOWEVER
THE SECOND LOW WILL BRING WITH IT MORE MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SET UP TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BOARDER AND YAKUTAT AND REMAIN STATIONARY. BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
INITIALLY SEE SNOW THEN AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH
THE FRONT SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL MIX
WITH RAIN INCLUDE FROM ELFIN COVE SOUTH AND MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
WHILE THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. JUNEAU AREA
WILL BE TRICKY...850MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM FROM -10C TUES
AFTERNOON TO -5C WED MORNING BEFORE COOLING AGAIN. THEREFORE HAVE
INCLUDED SNOW FOR TUES NIGHT AND ADDED IN MIXING WITH RAIN FOR
WED. GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
AREAS BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES...RANGING FROM 3-7IN ACROSS THE
NORTH FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL 2-4IN THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AND
1-3IN ACCUM OVER THE SOUTH. THESE AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH WED EVENING INTO THURS AS THE LOW
MOVES SEWRD. THIS WILL CAUSE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO TURN OFFSHORE
DECREASING PRECIP FURTHER. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH THE
STRENGTHENING ARCTIC COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A STRONG NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND GALES THROUGH OTHER
INSIDE CHANNELS FOR WED AND THURS. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH
PASSES AND GAPS IN THE MOUNTAINS OPEN TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING BUT
NOT LIMITED TO DISENCHANTMENT BAY IN YAKUTAT BAY AND CHILKAT AND
TAIYA VALLEYS.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURS THROUGH SATURDAY AS CAA OUT
OF THE NORTH CONTINUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SUNDAY WILL SEE A
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COASTAL AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW.

THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE TUES/WED LOW AND WHEN/HOW IT MOVES SOUTH. THE
GENERAL IDEA OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND LIKELY PRECIP
ARE SIMILAR. DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS...AS WELL AS TIMING OF WINDS
SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HAVE GONE WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION
FOR PRESSURE WITH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT ABOUT AVERAGE. TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS FOR PRECIP HOWEVER AS IT INITIALIZED TODAYS SNOW THE
BEST.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1110 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BACK LOOP ROAD

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M7.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FRITZ COVE

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   UTILITY COMPANY

            JUNEAU-DOUGLAS WATER TREATMENT

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M8.0 INCH                           AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            JUNEAU AIRPORT

1030 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            JUNEAU FORECAST OFFICE

&&

GLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
246 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BACK LOOP ROAD

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   UTILITY COMPANY

            JUNEAU-DOUGLAS WATER TREATMENT

0800 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M7.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FRITZ COVE

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M8.0 INCH                           AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            JUNEAU AIRPORT

1030 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            JUNEAU FORECAST OFFICE

1155 AM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NORTH DOUGLAS

1230 PM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/14/2011  E4.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SHELTER ISLAND BRANCHES BREAKING DUE TO SNOW

&&

GLS