Storm Warning 79, NWS Juneau, AK

432 
FZAK52 PAJK 140652 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
952 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-141600-
952 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG WEST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH
MONDAY.  A STRONG OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  

$$

PKZ041-141600-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
952 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 28 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT
SUBSIDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-141600-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
952 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN WITH
SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-141600-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
952 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-141600-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
952 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-141600-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
952 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
334 PM AKST SUN NOV 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND MON. FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA MON. ARCTIC FRONT WILL DRIFT
SWD INTO THE FAR NRN PANHANDLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN
OVER THE FAR NRN AREA THRU MON.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP TYPE. ATTM
STRONGEST BAND OF WLY WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE
CENTRAL OUTER COAST. EXPECT THIS BAND TO REMAIN THERE INTO MON BUT
A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP STORM GOING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS...WITH GALES IN
SURROUNDING GULF ZONES. FOR THE INNER CHANNELS...WILL KEEP GALE
FOR CROSS SOUND AND WRN END OF ICY STRAIT...WITH SCA FOR THE SRN
INNER CHANNELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART BUT AN OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF SCA WINDS IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. THE SCA GOING ON IN
LYNN CANAL ATTM SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS AND 1000-850
THICKNESS...SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED BUT SOME MIXED PRECIP IS
LIKELY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO FAIRLY WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
SO ONLY THE FAR SRN AREA SHOULD STILL SEE MIXED PRECIP BY LATE
TONIGHT. ON MON THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO SLOWLY BACK OVER
THE GULF SO SOME MODERATION OF THE LOWER LEVEL TEMPS IS
LIKELY...SO MORE RAIN SHOULD MIX IN FURTHER TO THE N
MON...PROBABLY AS FAR N AS THE FREDERICK SOUND AREA.

OTHERWISE...GIVEN SHOWERY NATURE OF PRECIP...NAILING DOWN SNOW
ACCUMS WILL BE TRICKY. THINK MOST AREAS THAT REMAIN ALL SNOW WILL
SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES THRU MON BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR THE MOST. POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL
FOR MOST AREAS BUT FOR THE FAR N WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM...A TWO STEP COOLING TREND SET TO OCCUR WITH THE
FIRST BEGINNING TO OCCUR DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIODS ABOVE
AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. THE SECOND STEP IN THE COOLING
TREND IS A LARGE SCALE ARCTIC OUTBREAK BEGINNING TUE NIGHT.
PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE PACKAGE HAVE BEEN FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK. CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WED WILL BE SLOW TO
LOSE CLOUD COVER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT A 500 MB
TROUGH WILL BE CONTINUING TO EXTEND S FM OVER PAMD AND SUPPORTING
A 995 MB LOW ABOUT 100 NM S OF PAYA WITH A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION.
THIS LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT MIDDLE AND UPPER
CLOUD CIGS THAT WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE IN A N TO S SEQUENCE
WED THROUGH THU.

BOTH THE EC AND NAM WERE USED. FOR 00Z WED THE IN THE GULF THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE EC/NAM/UK. EC IS ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER TO WEAKEN THE ARCTIC HIGH IN YUKON TRRTY LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ042-043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-041-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/JBT