Gale Warning 291, NWS Juneau, AK

665 
FZAK51 PAJK 201547 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-210115-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 967 MB GALE FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ONTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A GALE FORCE LOW WELL SW OF
DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT BECOMING 968 MB
125 NM OFF SITKA WED MORNING.  

$$

PKZ011-210115-
GLACIER BAY-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-210115-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-210115-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-210115-
ICY STRAIT-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-210115-
CROSS SOUND-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT 
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-210115-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. STRONGEST WIND NEAR
TAKU INLET LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-210115-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-210115-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT
15 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT
13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-210115-
FREDERICK SOUND-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-210115-
SUMNER STRAIT-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT
15 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-210115-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
747 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT
15 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

.SHORT TERM... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY CAUSING GUSTS TO
STORM FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OUTSIDE WATERS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE REMAINING OUTSIDE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE COASTAL LAND AREAS. FURTHER INLAND SITES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING 25-30KT OUT OF THE SE. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT ASSOC WITH THE LOW MOVES
INLAND. AREAS ALONG THE COAST SUCH AS SITKA AND CRAIG WILL SEE
WINDS REACHING 30-40MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAIN WILL ARRIVE WITH
THESE WINDS. LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED AT MOST SITES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.5-1IN IN 6HRS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AREAS WITH SW
FACING SLOPES AND ALONG THE COAST. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES.
SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE IN AREAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO GO OUT OF THEIR BANKS. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH LEAVES STARTING TO FALL OF TREES AND
PLUGGING DRAINS.

 OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
VARIATION TO JUST A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 50S.

 MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE. UPDATED THE THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS
AS THEY INITIALIZED THE BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...REMNANTS OF 973 MB LOW OVER KODIAK AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM ON TUE NIGHT WITH A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACKING INTO THE AK GULF BY WED. THIS
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 966 MB WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE CONNECTED TO THE LOW WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION
AGAIN. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE LOW BUT GFS STILL A BIT FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC/NAM. AS THIS
LOW WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE.
ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AGAIN TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW CENTER DEEPENING TO AROUND 960 MB BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXITS WITH THE GFS AROUND 18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EC.
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS WEEKS LOWS WILL SEE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER
THE WEEKEND, DID INCREASE POPS FOR SAT BUT AT THIS TIME SUN
LOOKING A BIT DRIER.

DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM USED A
BLEND OF GFS AND NAM WITH INHERITED GRIDS. KEPT WITH GFS FOR THE
WED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT KEEP WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SWITCHED BACK TO ECMWF THEN TO HPC,
WHICH USED EC ENSEMBLES, SHOWING THE SLOWER TIMING WITH THE
FRIDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DID SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, HOWEVER TONED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A
SMOOTHER TRANSITION.

HYDROLOGICAL. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ENTERING THE GULF
WILL EACH BRING HIGH WINDS AND AMPLE PRECIPITATION WITH QPF RATES
OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS. THE CONTINUED RAIN WILL STATURE THE
GROUND AND RAISE RIVER LEVELS...HOWEVER RIVERS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ACTION STAGE AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOWERING KEEPING PRECIP AT
HIGH ELEVATIONS FROZEN RESULTING IN LESS RUN OFF. MUDSLIDES WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY DUE THE CONTINUED PRECIP AND HIGH WINDS HELPING
TO LOOSEN SOIL. BLOCKED DRAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND FALLING
LEAVES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-032>035-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031.

&&

HANNON/PRB