Gale Warning 290, NWS Juneau, AK

777 
FZAK52 PAJK 202007 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1207 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211415-
1207 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 970 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A LOW SW OF DIXON
ENTRANCE WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY TO STORM FORCE TONIGHT TO LIE
OFFSHORE SITKA WED MORNING.  

$$

PKZ041-211415-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1207 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-211415-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1207 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-211415-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1207 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-211415-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1207 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-211415-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1207 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

609 
FZAK52 PAJK 202329
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211400-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 970 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A LOW SW OF DIXON
ENTRANCE WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY TO STORM FORCE TONIGHT TO LIE
OFFSHORE SITKA WED MORNING.  

$$

PKZ041-211400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT.

.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-211400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-211400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-211400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-211400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE 15
KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

.SHORT TERM... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY CAUSING GUSTS TO
STORM FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OUTSIDE WATERS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE REMAINING OUTSIDE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE COASTAL LAND AREAS. FURTHER INLAND SITES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING 25-30KT OUT OF THE SE. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT ASSOC WITH THE LOW MOVES
INLAND. AREAS ALONG THE COAST SUCH AS SITKA AND CRAIG WILL SEE
WINDS REACHING 30-40MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAIN WILL ARRIVE WITH
THESE WINDS. LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED AT MOST SITES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.5-1IN IN 6HRS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AREAS WITH SW
FACING SLOPES AND ALONG THE COAST. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES.
SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE IN AREAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO GO OUT OF THEIR BANKS. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH LEAVES STARTING TO FALL OF TREES AND
PLUGGING DRAINS.

 OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
VARIATION TO JUST A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 50S.

 MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE. UPDATED THE THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS
AS THEY INITIALIZED THE BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...REMNANTS OF 973 MB LOW OVER KODIAK AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM ON TUE NIGHT WITH A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACKING INTO THE AK GULF BY WED. THIS
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 966 MB WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE CONNECTED TO THE LOW WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION
AGAIN. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE LOW BUT GFS STILL A BIT FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC/NAM. AS THIS
LOW WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE.
ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AGAIN TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW CENTER DEEPENING TO AROUND 960 MB BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXITS WITH THE GFS AROUND 18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EC.
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS WEEKS LOWS WILL SEE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER
THE WEEKEND, DID INCREASE POPS FOR SAT BUT AT THIS TIME SUN
LOOKING A BIT DRIER.

DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM USED A
BLEND OF GFS AND NAM WITH INHERITED GRIDS. KEPT WITH GFS FOR THE
WED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT KEEP WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SWITCHED BACK TO ECMWF THEN TO HPC,
WHICH USED EC ENSEMBLES, SHOWING THE SLOWER TIMING WITH THE
FRIDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DID SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, HOWEVER TONED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A
SMOOTHER TRANSITION.

HYDROLOGICAL. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ENTERING THE GULF
WILL EACH BRING HIGH WINDS AND AMPLE PRECIPITATION WITH QPF RATES
OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS. THE CONTINUED RAIN WILL STATURE THE
GROUND AND RAISE RIVER LEVELS...HOWEVER RIVERS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ACTION STAGE AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOWERING KEEPING PRECIP AT
HIGH ELEVATIONS FROZEN RESULTING IN LESS RUN OFF. MUDSLIDES WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY DUE THE CONTINUED PRECIP AND HIGH WINDS HELPING
TO LOOSEN SOIL. BLOCKED DRAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND FALLING
LEAVES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-032>035-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031.

&&

HANNON/PRB