Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2011
Gale Warning 289, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Sep 19, 2011, 8:55 PM AKDT. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 19, 2011, 8:55 PM AKDT (04:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 20, 2011, 4:00 AM AKDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
990 FZAK51 PAJK 200453 AAA CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-201400- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. $$ PKZ011-201400- GLACIER BAY- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-201400- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ013-201400- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ021-201400- ICY STRAIT- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .TUE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ022-201400- CROSS SOUND- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ031-201400- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .TUE...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .WED...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-201400- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .TUE...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ033-201400- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...SE GALE INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ034-201400- FREDERICK SOUND- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .TUE...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-201400- SUMNER STRAIT- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT S NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SE NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ036-201400- CLARENCE STRAIT- 855 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 UPDATED ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN. .TUE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$
1 follow-up statement
112 FZAK51 PAJK 201135 CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-210100- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A 967 MB GALE FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A GALE FORCE LOW WELL SW OF DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT BECOMING 968 MB 125 NM OFF SITKA WED MORNING. $$ PKZ011-210100- GLACIER BAY- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-210100- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ013-210100- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ021-210100- ICY STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ022-210100- CROSS SOUND- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. RAIN. .TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .THU...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$ PKZ031-210100- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. STRONGEST WIND NEAR TAKU INLET LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ032-210100- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN. .WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .THU...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ033-210100- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .THU...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ034-210100- FREDERICK SOUND- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-210100- SUMNER STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ036-210100- CLARENCE STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. .WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Sep 19, 3:33 PM AKDT, 5 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 19, 3:33 PM AKDT, 5 hours 22 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011
.SHORT TERM... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY CAUSING GUSTS TO
STORM FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OUTSIDE WATERS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE REMAINING OUTSIDE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE COASTAL LAND AREAS. FURTHER INLAND SITES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING 25-30KT OUT OF THE SE. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT ASSOC WITH THE LOW MOVES
INLAND. AREAS ALONG THE COAST SUCH AS SITKA AND CRAIG WILL SEE
WINDS REACHING 30-40MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAIN WILL ARRIVE WITH
THESE WINDS. LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED AT MOST SITES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.5-1IN IN 6HRS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AREAS WITH SW
FACING SLOPES AND ALONG THE COAST. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES.
SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE IN AREAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO GO OUT OF THEIR BANKS. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH LEAVES STARTING TO FALL OF TREES AND
PLUGGING DRAINS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
VARIATION TO JUST A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 50S.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE. UPDATED THE THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS
AS THEY INITIALIZED THE BEST.
&&
.LONG TERM...REMNANTS OF 973 MB LOW OVER KODIAK AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM ON TUE NIGHT WITH A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACKING INTO THE AK GULF BY WED. THIS
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 966 MB WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE CONNECTED TO THE LOW WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION
AGAIN. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE LOW BUT GFS STILL A BIT FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC/NAM. AS THIS
LOW WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE.
ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AGAIN TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW CENTER DEEPENING TO AROUND 960 MB BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXITS WITH THE GFS AROUND 18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EC.
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS WEEKS LOWS WILL SEE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER
THE WEEKEND, DID INCREASE POPS FOR SAT BUT AT THIS TIME SUN
LOOKING A BIT DRIER.
DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM USED A
BLEND OF GFS AND NAM WITH INHERITED GRIDS. KEPT WITH GFS FOR THE
WED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT KEEP WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SWITCHED BACK TO ECMWF THEN TO HPC,
WHICH USED EC ENSEMBLES, SHOWING THE SLOWER TIMING WITH THE
FRIDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DID SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, HOWEVER TONED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A
SMOOTHER TRANSITION.
HYDROLOGICAL. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ENTERING THE GULF
WILL EACH BRING HIGH WINDS AND AMPLE PRECIPITATION WITH QPF RATES
OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS. THE CONTINUED RAIN WILL STATURE THE
GROUND AND RAISE RIVER LEVELS...HOWEVER RIVERS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ACTION STAGE AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOWERING KEEPING PRECIP AT
HIGH ELEVATIONS FROZEN RESULTING IN LESS RUN OFF. MUDSLIDES WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY DUE THE CONTINUED PRECIP AND HIGH WINDS HELPING
TO LOOSEN SOIL. BLOCKED DRAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND FALLING
LEAVES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-032>035-053.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031.
&&
HANNON/PRBThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 4 days | |
| Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 4 hr | |
| Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 4 days | |
| Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Sep 20, 7:47 AM AKDT | Storm Warning | AJK | 8 hr | |
| Sep 20, 12:07 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 16 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.