Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2011
Gale Warning 264, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Sep 20, 2011, 4:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 4 days. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 20, 2011, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 23, 2011, 4:00 PM AKDT
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
659 FZAK67 PAJK 201145 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-210100- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A 967 MB GALE FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A GALE FORCE LOW WELL SW OF DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT BECOMING 968 MB 125 NM OFF SITKA WED MORNING. $$ PKZ310-210100- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EARLY MORNING FOR THE S PART. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. .WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .THU...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$
10 follow-up statements
489 FZAK67 PAJK 202011 AAA OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 1211 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-211415- 1211 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A 970 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ONTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A LOW SW OF DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY TO STORM FORCE TONIGHT TO LIE OFFSHORE SITKA WED MORNING. $$ PKZ310-211415- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 1211 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT... .REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. .WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .THU...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$
665 FZAK67 PAJK 202330 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-211400- 400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A 970 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ONTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A LOW SW OF DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY TO STORM FORCE TONIGHT AND LIE OFFSHORE SITKA WED MORNING. $$ PKZ310-211400- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 ...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. .WED...WESTERN PORTIONS...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. EASTERN PORTIONS...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. .WED NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. .THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. .FRI...NW GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$
751 FZAK67 PAJK 211126 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-220100- 400 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A 968 MB LOW OFFSHORE SITKA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT N AND WEAKEN TO 974 MB S OF YAKUTAT BAY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SE AK TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. OUTLOOK. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST GULF THU NIGHT AND ONSHORE THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. $$ PKZ310-220100- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. .THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. .THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. .FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. $$
741 FZAK67 PAJK 212300 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-221400- 400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A 974 MB LOW S OF YAKUTAT BAY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SE AK THROUGH THU MORNING. OUTLOOK. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST GULF AND ONSHORE THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THU NIGHT. $$ PKZ310-221400- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...EASTERN PORTION...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. WESTERN PORTION...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. .THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. .FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$
491 FZAK67 PAJK 221130 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-230100- 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE AK WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE FRI MORNING. $$ PKZ310-230100- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT EASTERN HALF... .TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. .TONIGHT...W OF 140W...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. E OF 140W...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 45 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. .FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$
633 FZAK67 PAJK 221721 CCA OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 920 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-230100- 400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE AK WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE FRI MORNING. $$ PKZ310-230100- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 920 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 CORRECTED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT EASTERN HALF... .TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. .TONIGHT...WEST OF 140W...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. EAST OF 140W...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 45 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. .FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. $$
919 FZAK67 PAJK 230036 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-231400- 400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRACK NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIE OFF CAPE DECISION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. $$ PKZ310-231400- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 45 KT LATE. STRONGEST WIND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. SEAS 13 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$
522 FZAK67 PAJK 230633 AAA OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 1033 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-240045- 1033 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRACK NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIE OFF CAPE DECISION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. $$ PKZ310-240045- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 1033 PM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... .REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 45 KT LATE. STRONGEST WIND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. SEAS 13 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$
682 FZAK67 PAJK 231110 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-240100- 400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... A 975 MB LOW IN CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH AND WILL DEVELOP IN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF AS WELL AS NORTH ALONG THE PANHANDLE TODAY. $$ PKZ310-240100- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WIND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. SEAS 12 FT. .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. .SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$
451 FZAK67 PAJK 232320 OFFAJK OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ398-241400- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND RIDGE NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A WEAK LOW WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. $$ PKZ310-241400- GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES WEST- 400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011 .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. .MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Sep 19, 3:33 PM AKDT, 12 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 19, 3:33 PM AKDT, 12 hours 27 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011
.SHORT TERM... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY CAUSING GUSTS TO
STORM FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OUTSIDE WATERS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE REMAINING OUTSIDE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE COASTAL LAND AREAS. FURTHER INLAND SITES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING 25-30KT OUT OF THE SE. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT ASSOC WITH THE LOW MOVES
INLAND. AREAS ALONG THE COAST SUCH AS SITKA AND CRAIG WILL SEE
WINDS REACHING 30-40MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAIN WILL ARRIVE WITH
THESE WINDS. LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED AT MOST SITES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.5-1IN IN 6HRS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AREAS WITH SW
FACING SLOPES AND ALONG THE COAST. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES.
SMALL STREAMS WILL RISE IN AREAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO GO OUT OF THEIR BANKS. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH LEAVES STARTING TO FALL OF TREES AND
PLUGGING DRAINS.
OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
VARIATION TO JUST A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 50S.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE. UPDATED THE THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS
AS THEY INITIALIZED THE BEST.
&&
.LONG TERM...REMNANTS OF 973 MB LOW OVER KODIAK AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM ON TUE NIGHT WITH A SECOND GALE FORCE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACKING INTO THE AK GULF BY WED. THIS
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 966 MB WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS LONG FETCH OF
MOISTURE CONNECTED TO THE LOW WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION
AGAIN. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE LOW BUT GFS STILL A BIT FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC/NAM. AS THIS
LOW WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE.
ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AGAIN TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS
HAVE THE LOW CENTER DEEPENING TO AROUND 960 MB BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXITS WITH THE GFS AROUND 18 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EC.
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS WEEKS LOWS WILL SEE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER
THE WEEKEND, DID INCREASE POPS FOR SAT BUT AT THIS TIME SUN
LOOKING A BIT DRIER.
DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM USED A
BLEND OF GFS AND NAM WITH INHERITED GRIDS. KEPT WITH GFS FOR THE
WED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT KEEP WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SWITCHED BACK TO ECMWF THEN TO HPC,
WHICH USED EC ENSEMBLES, SHOWING THE SLOWER TIMING WITH THE
FRIDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DID SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, HOWEVER TONED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR A
SMOOTHER TRANSITION.
HYDROLOGICAL. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ENTERING THE GULF
WILL EACH BRING HIGH WINDS AND AMPLE PRECIPITATION WITH QPF RATES
OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS. THE CONTINUED RAIN WILL STATURE THE
GROUND AND RAISE RIVER LEVELS...HOWEVER RIVERS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ACTION STAGE AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOWERING KEEPING PRECIP AT
HIGH ELEVATIONS FROZEN RESULTING IN LESS RUN OFF. MUDSLIDES WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY DUE THE CONTINUED PRECIP AND HIGH WINDS HELPING
TO LOOSEN SOIL. BLOCKED DRAINS FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND FALLING
LEAVES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-032>035-053.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031.
&&
HANNON/PRBThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Sep 19, 8:55 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 7 hr | |
| Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 4 hr | |
| Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 4 days | |
| Sep 20, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 24 hr | |
| Sep 20, 7:47 AM AKDT | Storm Warning | AJK | 8 hr | |
| Sep 20, 12:07 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 16 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.