Wind Chill Advisory 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

667 
WWAK41 PAFC 151929
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1029 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO BRING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

AKZ131-161430-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0015.111116T0300Z-111117T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0035.111116T0300Z-111117T0300Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
1029 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. 
THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

* VISIBILITY...WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE IN BLOWING  
SNOW.

* WIND...EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND 50 TO 70 MPH. GUSTS TO 100 MPH
  THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE PASS MAY REACH 35
  BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEGINNING EARLY THIS
  EVENING AND PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES
  ARE EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IMPROVE AS TRANSPORTABLE SNOW IS REMOVED.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AND
  DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ145-161430-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.111116T0900Z-111117T2100Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
1029 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON AKST THURSDAY NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON AKST THURSDAY NORTH OF TALKEETNA. 

* LOCATION...AREAS NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 30 TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND 
  COMBINE WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE 
  DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL MODERATE A BIT 
  DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THEN DROP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
  WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. 

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

345 
WWAK41 PAFC 160106
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
406 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO BRING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

AKZ131-161415-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0035.111116T0300Z-111117T0300Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
406 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY
FOR THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

* VISIBILITY...WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE IN
  BLOWING SNOW.

* WIND...EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND 50 TO 70 MPH. GUSTS TO 100 MPH 
  THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE PASS MAY REACH 
  35 BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
  THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED FROM
  THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IMPROVE
  AS TRANSPORTABLE SNOW IS REMOVED.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AND 
  DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ145-161415-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.111116T0900Z-111117T2100Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
406 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON AKST THURSDAY NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON AKST THURSDAY. 

* LOCATION...AREAS NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 BELOW TO 50 BELOW.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 30 TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND COMBINE WITH
  FALLING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
  WIND CHILL READINGS WILL MODERATE A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
  BUT THEN DROP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
  THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

342 
WWAK41 PAFC 161407
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
507 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO BRING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

AKZ131-170300-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0035.000000T0000Z-111117T0300Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
507 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING
FOR THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WIND 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH THROUGH
  THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY. NORTH WIND 55 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100
  MPH THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

* TIMING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND THEN IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE AMOUNT OF
  TRANSPORTABLE SNOW DIMINISHES.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AND 
  DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ145-170315-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-111117T2100Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
507 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY
NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY.

* LOCATION...AREAS NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...25 BELOW TO 45 BELOW.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 45 TO 60 MPH DECREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH
  THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT THIS MORNING...THEN
  MODERATE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN THIS
  EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALLOWING
  WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

890 
WWAK41 PAFC 170056
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
356 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA COMBINING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
THOMPSON PASS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

AKZ131-170900-
/X.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0035.000000T0000Z-111117T0900Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
356 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
THOMPSON PASS...

THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT FOR THOMPSON PASS. 

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WIND 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH
  THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

* TIMING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND
  THEN IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE AMOUNT OF TRANSPORTABLE SNOW
  DIMINISHES.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AND 
  DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ145-171400-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-111117T2100Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
356 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
THURSDAY NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY
NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* LOCATION...AREAS NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 35 TO 50 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH
  THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING. WINDS
  WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO
  RISE.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

329 
WWAK41 PAFC 170712
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1012 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA COMBINING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
TO THOMPSON PASS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

AKZ131-172015-
/X.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0035.000000T0000Z-111117T2100Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
1012 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR
THOMPSON PASS...

THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY.

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WIND 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH 
  THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. 

* TIMING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 
  THEN IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE AMOUNT OF TRANSPORTABLE SNOW 
  DIMINISHES. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AND 
  DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ145-172015-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-111117T2100Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
1012 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
THURSDAY FOR NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY
FOR NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* LOCATION...AREAS NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 35 TO 50 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH 
  THURSDAY MORNING. 

* TIMING...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RECOVER THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

643 
WWAK41 PAFC 171837
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
937 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

AKZ131-171945-
/X.CAN.PAFC.BZ.W.0035.000000T0000Z-111117T2100Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
937 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING.


$$

AKZ145-172100-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-111117T2100Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
937 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* LOCATION...AREAS NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 35 TO 50 MPH .

* TIMING...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL AROUND NOON.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

252 
WWAK41 PAFC 172100
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

AKZ145-172200-
/X.EXP.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-111117T2100Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
1200 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
415 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE FEATURES A DIPOLE PATTERN WITH AN ELONGATED
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN ALASKA COAST IN THE
BEAUFORT SEA. A CORRESPONDING HIGH CENTER ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG LIES
OVER NORTHERN SIBERIA. GEOSTROPHIC FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO VERTICALLY
STACKED CENTERS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD.
WELL TO THE SOUTH A STRONG WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS FROM EAST ASIA
THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH THIS FLOW HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS FOR AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FOR THE PREVIOUS
WEEK. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AKPEN INTO THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN
GULF AND COASTAL AREA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ANYWHERE
FROM THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEAR NEGATIVE 40. CLOUD COVER HAS
PREVENTED THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT FOR MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT
AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS. A FURTHER OUT WEST...A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TO
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BRINGS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTICALLY THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD
UPPER LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT WILL ELONGATE AND PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH AN
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ALASKA. THAT UPPER LOW WILL
PHASE WITH THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ORIENTED WEST/EAST ACROSS THE BERING
TO FORM A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTER FROM THE GULF THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
ALASKA. THE SIBERIAN HIGH WILL ALSO DRIFT SOUTH AND MERGE WITH A
DEVELOPING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING WHICH IS BEING FORCED BY A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A LARGE COMPLEX UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SEA OF OKHOTSK PUSHING WARM AIR TO THE NORTH. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION
OF ALL THESE FEATURES BEGINS TO INTRODUCE SPREAD WITHIN MODEL
GUIDANCE BY WEDNESDAY...MORE AT THE SURFACE THAN THE UPPER LEVELS.
THE IMPACT OF THESE DIFFERENCES ON THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY REVOLVE
AROUND A SURFACE LOW SETTING UP IN THE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A NORTHERLY WIND EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM A SNOWY PATTERN FOR
THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE MAT-SU WHICH HAS NOT
ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB VERY MUCH DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE HANG AROUND THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER THAT. THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND HENCE
CLOUDY. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR MAY BRIEFLY
INTRODUCE SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE IN THE GULF EARLY TUESDAY SNOW AND RAIN WILL
ENCOMPASS THE GULF AS WELL AS SNOW ON KODIAK ISLAND BUT WILL STAY
AWAY FROM INLAND LOCATIONS. THE BIGGER THREAT WITH THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH COLD DENSE AIR IN THE
COPPER RIVER WILL MAKE STRONG WIND POSSIBILITY FLIRTING WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN THOMPSON PASS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WITH COLD TEMPS AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE COMBINED FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS AND MIST FOR THE INTERIOR. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE AKPEN. AGAIN THE STORY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM IS COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS MAKING
FOR SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE SYSTEM WORKING JUST NORTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS TODAY HARBORS A NICE DIVIDE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF AROUND 56N AND RAIN
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THERE. THE ATTENDANT FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ON
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL
SNOW JUST AS THE FRONT PASSES LEAVING SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY. A NEW SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD BRINGING WIND AND RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONING
TO ALL RAIN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
AROUND THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND WESTERN BERING. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE ALEUTIANS WITH
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE MAINLAND THE DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
SAVE FOR A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CLIP THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND AKPEN
LATE WEEK. THE QUIET COLD NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN WILL HOLD OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL. SEVERAL OF THE DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AKPEN INTO THE
GULF WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH WIND AND RAIN/SNOW BUT
INLAND AREAS WILL STAY DRY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 131
         HIGH WIND WATCH 135
MARINE...STORM 127 130 132 176 411 413
         GALE 120 121 126 128 129 150 155 172 175 185 412
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL NOV 11