Gale Warning 801, NWS Anchorage, AK

334 
FZAK62 PAFC 151203
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160300-
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 47N 170E WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 57N 163E WED
MORNING AT 986 MB. A SECOND NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 46N 174E
WED MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO 54N 174E WED NIGHT AND
INTENSIFY TO 968 MB.

$$

PKZ411-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N OF 56N...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. S OF 56N...SE WIND 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W OF 167W...E WIND 30 KT. E OF 167W...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W OF 167W...E WIND 35 KT. E OF 167W...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL BUT THING QUICKLY DIFFER BY MID DAY. THEY ALL
PICK UP ON THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BUT THE GFS
MOVES IT MUCH QUICKER INTO THE GULF THEN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF IS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. WITH FAIRLY BROAD JET RUNNING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF YOU WOULD EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ALONG FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM REALLY SLOWS DOWN THE LOW. WE ARE
FAVORING THE ECWMF THIS MORNING MAINLY BECAUSE IT NOW SEEMS TO BE THE
AVERAGE OF THE OTHER TWO. OTHER THAN THAT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BETWEEN THE MODELS IS GOOD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WHILE TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN MAINLAND. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE REACHING THE GULF IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY TO THE 980S AFTER IT CROSSES THE GULF AND BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STEEP
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP FORM ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND COPPER RIVER DELTA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY WHILE A SECOND STRONG 990S LOW
MOVES NEAR SHEMYA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
SNOW  WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AROUND HOMER SPREADING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND  EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OTHER AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY. MOSTLY CLEAR...COLDER DRY AIR WILL SPREAD DOWN FROM
THE NORTH BY TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FROM THE LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CHANNELED AREA OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN.

SOUTHWEST...
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY IS PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND NORTHERLY
BY TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME COLD
AND DRY CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TURNING TO OR MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE CHAIN AND THE AKPEN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING BY
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.  A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY SPREADING RAIN
AND GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
MAINLAND DRIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD END THE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
AWHILE AND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CHAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE MAINLAND
BY LATE NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 150 160 165 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 11