High Wind Watch 32, NWS Anchorage, AK

871 
WWAK71 PAFC 151355
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

AKZ135-160300-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0032.111116T0900Z-111117T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0041.111116T1200Z-111117T1400Z/
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CORDOVA
455 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY FOR THE COPPER RIVER DELTA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


* LOCATION...THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 60 TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING AND REACH
  WARNING LEVEL BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
  THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS CAN MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL BUT THING QUICKLY DIFFER BY MID DAY. THEY ALL
PICK UP ON THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BUT THE GFS
MOVES IT MUCH QUICKER INTO THE GULF THEN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF IS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. WITH FAIRLY BROAD JET RUNNING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF YOU WOULD EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ALONG FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM REALLY SLOWS DOWN THE LOW. WE ARE
FAVORING THE ECWMF THIS MORNING MAINLY BECAUSE IT NOW SEEMS TO BE THE
AVERAGE OF THE OTHER TWO. OTHER THAN THAT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BETWEEN THE MODELS IS GOOD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WHILE TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN MAINLAND. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE REACHING THE GULF IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY TO THE 980S AFTER IT CROSSES THE GULF AND BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STEEP
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP FORM ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND COPPER RIVER DELTA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY WHILE A SECOND STRONG 990S LOW
MOVES NEAR SHEMYA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
SNOW  WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AROUND HOMER SPREADING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND  EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OTHER AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY. MOSTLY CLEAR...COLDER DRY AIR WILL SPREAD DOWN FROM
THE NORTH BY TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FROM THE LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CHANNELED AREA OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN.

SOUTHWEST...
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY IS PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND NORTHERLY
BY TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME COLD
AND DRY CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TURNING TO OR MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE CHAIN AND THE AKPEN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING BY
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.  A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY SPREADING RAIN
AND GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
MAINLAND DRIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD END THE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
AWHILE AND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CHAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE MAINLAND
BY LATE NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 150 160 165 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 11