Blizzard Watch 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

130 
WWAK41 PAFC 151349
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
449 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO BRING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL
CAUSE BLOWING SNOW THAT MAY CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

AKZ145-160300-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.111116T0900Z-111117T2100Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
449 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
AKST THURSDAY NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST
THURSDAY. 

* LOCATION...AREAS NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 30 TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
  COMBINE WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE
  DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL MODERATE A BIT
  DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THEN DROP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
  WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ131-160300-
/X.EXT.PAFC.BZ.A.0015.111116T0300Z-111117T1500Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
449 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

* VISIBILITY...MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE IN BLOWING
  SNOW.

* WIND...NORTHEAST WIND 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH THROUGH
  THOMPSON PASS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEGINNING EARLY THIS
  EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE POOR VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND 
  DRIFTING ACROSS ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

667 
WWAK41 PAFC 151929
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1029 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO BRING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

AKZ131-161430-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0015.111116T0300Z-111117T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0035.111116T0300Z-111117T0300Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
1029 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. 
THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...THE LOWE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

* VISIBILITY...WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE IN BLOWING  
SNOW.

* WIND...EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND 50 TO 70 MPH. GUSTS TO 100 MPH
  THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE PASS MAY REACH 35
  BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEGINNING EARLY THIS
  EVENING AND PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES
  ARE EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IMPROVE AS TRANSPORTABLE SNOW IS REMOVED.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AND
  DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ145-161430-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.111116T0900Z-111117T2100Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
1029 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON AKST THURSDAY NORTH OF TALKEETNA...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON AKST THURSDAY NORTH OF TALKEETNA. 

* LOCATION...AREAS NORTH OF TALKEETNA.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 30 TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND 
  COMBINE WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE 
  DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL MODERATE A BIT 
  DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THEN DROP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
  WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. 

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON NOV 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL BUT THING QUICKLY DIFFER BY MID DAY. THEY ALL
PICK UP ON THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BUT THE GFS
MOVES IT MUCH QUICKER INTO THE GULF THEN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF IS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. WITH FAIRLY BROAD JET RUNNING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF YOU WOULD EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE ALONG FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM REALLY SLOWS DOWN THE LOW. WE ARE
FAVORING THE ECWMF THIS MORNING MAINLY BECAUSE IT NOW SEEMS TO BE THE
AVERAGE OF THE OTHER TWO. OTHER THAN THAT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BETWEEN THE MODELS IS GOOD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WHILE TROUGHS
DEEPEN OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN MAINLAND. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE REACHING THE GULF IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY TO THE 980S AFTER IT CROSSES THE GULF AND BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A STEEP
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP FORM ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND COPPER RIVER DELTA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY WHILE A SECOND STRONG 990S LOW
MOVES NEAR SHEMYA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
SNOW  WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA AROUND HOMER SPREADING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND  EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...OTHER THAN THAT
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER OTHER AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY. MOSTLY CLEAR...COLDER DRY AIR WILL SPREAD DOWN FROM
THE NORTH BY TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FROM THE LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CHANNELED AREA OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN.

SOUTHWEST...
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY IS PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND NORTHERLY
BY TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME COLD
AND DRY CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TURNING TO OR MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE CHAIN AND THE AKPEN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING BY
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.  A FRONT EXTENDING FROM A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY SPREADING RAIN
AND GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
MAINLAND DRIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD END THE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
AWHILE AND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE CHAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE MAINLAND
BY LATE NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 150 160 165 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 11