Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1006 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

AS OF 1000 AM...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT
ORIENTED ACROSS MISSOURI FROM KANSAS CITY TO MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND FORMING AT THE NOSE OF 30 T0
40 KT 850MB FLOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE COLUMN IS QUITE
SATURATED WITH VERY LITTLE DRY AIR INTRUSION SO HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE
A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE.

ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI...MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER INHIBITIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG.
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL WORK
TO INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING.
PLENTY OF SHEAR IS IN PLACE OVER THE THREAT AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 30 KT FROM 0 TO 1 KM. WITH
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNLIKELY...ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCERS WILL
BE A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

OVER THE WARM SECTOR OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH GOOD WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...SURFACE
INHIBITIONS REMAIN HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD.
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING. CLEARING
SKIES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WILL
ALLOW DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED
WELL NORTH BY THEN. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG TRIGGER...THIS
INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN UNTAPPED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LEAVE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD AN MCS MOVING OUT OF
KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE ARE FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KARDELL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IF ITS ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF IT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
AROUND 10Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY AROUND 30 TO 35KT OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SHOULD VEER TO THE EAST AND NOSE INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AREA THIS MORNING
WITH GENERALLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MU-CAPE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY
ACTIVITY THE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY SURFACE
BASED AND COULD REMAIN SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT GREAT OVER THE AREA AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND -8 TO -9 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL AND SEVERE
THREAT THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A MARGINAL THREAT WITH
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. IF THE SUPERCELL TO THE WEST MAINTAINS
ITSELF THERE WILL BE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WITH THAT ACTIVITY.

FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
THE WIND FIELDS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE STORMS
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK
BRINGING AN END TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. UNDER THE RIDGE
MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE. WITH THE RECENT RAINS THE GROUND IS
VERY GREEN AND MOIST AND THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING HIGHS
SOME...THUS HAVE UNDER CUT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF AND KJLN TAFS...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING BUT REMAINED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES RESPECTIVELY...HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT TRACK THIS WILL TAKE IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR THE TAF SITES AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO COVER THIS. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF
SITES.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
  FLOODING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...PRIMARILY
  NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO WEST PLAINS.

  AFTER 6 PM...AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI. CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND MOVE
  ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

  DISCUSSION:

  EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE
  WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEVADA TO EMINENCE WILL LIKELY TURN
  SEVERE QUICKLY WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE INSTABILITY. GOLF BALL
  SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...REDEVELOPMENT OF
  STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
  KANSAS. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN
  THIS AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN
  PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF GOLF BALLS....DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
  BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX
  OF STORMS AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
  MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN
  BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
  MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS
  TIME.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

KARDELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

MOZ079-151715-
POLK MO-
1152 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM
CDT...

AT 1150 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MORRISVILLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
BOLIVAR...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1159 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 AM     HAIL             BRIGHTON                37.46N  93.35W
06/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       POLK               MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW VERSAILLES         38.47N  92.89W
06/15/2009                   MORGAN             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE BB IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S CROCKER             37.92N  92.26W
06/15/2009                   PULASKI            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTES DD AND HH CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD WATERS.

&&

HATCH