Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 151409
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
909 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

MOC015-029-131-141-151700-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-090615T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
909 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
MILLER...NORTHERN CAMDEN...SOUTHERN BENTON AND SOUTHERN MORGAN
COUNTIES...

AT 901 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA...INCLUDING A REPORT OF 4.60 INCHES JUST WEST OF LAURIE.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED WATER RUNNING OVER THE INTERSECTION OF 
HIGHWAYS KK AND 17...AND A LOW WATER BRIDGE WAS FLOODED AND 
IMPASSABLE SOUTH OF ELDON BETWEEN ALLEN ROAD AND AZTEK LANE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 9219 3802 9240 3799 9241 3802 9307
      3806 9307 3807 9351 3835 9351 3834 9220

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IF ITS ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF IT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
AROUND 10Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY AROUND 30 TO 35KT OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SHOULD VEER TO THE EAST AND NOSE INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AREA THIS MORNING
WITH GENERALLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MU-CAPE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY
ACTIVITY THE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY SURFACE
BASED AND COULD REMAIN SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT GREAT OVER THE AREA AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND -8 TO -9 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL AND SEVERE
THREAT THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A MARGINAL THREAT WITH
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. IF THE SUPERCELL TO THE WEST MAINTAINS
ITSELF THERE WILL BE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WITH THAT ACTIVITY.

FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
THE WIND FIELDS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE STORMS
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK
BRINGING AN END TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. UNDER THE RIDGE
MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE. WITH THE RECENT RAINS THE GROUND IS
VERY GREEN AND MOIST AND THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING HIGHS
SOME...THUS HAVE UNDER CUT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH ACCOMPANYING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL DEVELOPS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FOR AT TIME MONDAY MORNING BUT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY
LINGER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
348 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-160900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
348 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
  AND ISOLATED TORNADOES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
  THE FIRST WILL BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THEN
  THE SECOND ROUND WILL EFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN SPREAD
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE LOW
  LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED
  INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG STORMS. MID
  LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM AND LAPSE RATES
  MARGINAL...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT SOME THIS MORNING.
  WITH STORMS INITIALLY BEING ELEVATE IN NATURE...THE WIND THREAT
  WILL GENERALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. WITH THE
  INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
  LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
  SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY.

  LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...REDEVELOPMENT OF
  STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
  ENVIRONMENT FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN THIS AREA.
  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
  THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS....DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO THEN DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX OF
  STORMS AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
  HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
  POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  LINGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
  MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS
  TIME.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THIS
 AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

MOZ067-150915-
ST. CLAIR MO-
340 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY UNTIL 415
AM CDT...

AT 340 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF APPLETON CITY...OR 14 MILES
NORTH OF EL DORADO SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HATCH