Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IF ITS ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF IT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
AROUND 10Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY AROUND 30 TO 35KT OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SHOULD VEER TO THE EAST AND NOSE INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AREA THIS MORNING
WITH GENERALLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MU-CAPE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY
ACTIVITY THE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY SURFACE
BASED AND COULD REMAIN SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT GREAT OVER THE AREA AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND -8 TO -9 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL AND SEVERE
THREAT THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A MARGINAL THREAT WITH
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. IF THE SUPERCELL TO THE WEST MAINTAINS
ITSELF THERE WILL BE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WITH THAT ACTIVITY.

FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
THE WIND FIELDS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE STORMS
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK
BRINGING AN END TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. UNDER THE RIDGE
MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE. WITH THE RECENT RAINS THE GROUND IS
VERY GREEN AND MOIST AND THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING HIGHS
SOME...THUS HAVE UNDER CUT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF AND KJLN TAFS...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING BUT REMAINED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. FEEL
THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES RESPECTIVELY...HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXACT TRACK THIS WILL TAKE IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR THE TAF SITES AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO COVER THIS. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF
SITES.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
707 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
707 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
  AND ISOLATED TORNADOES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
  THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
  WILL PUSH OUT OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY MID MORNING. THE SECOND
  ROUND IS EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN SPREAD
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
  THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE
  NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
  CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE OUTLOOK AREA
  BY MID MORNING. THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY COULD
  BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
  FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

  LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...REDEVELOPMENT OF
  STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
  ENVIRONMENT FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN THIS AREA.
  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
  THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS....DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO THEN DEVELOP INTO A
  COMPLEX OF STORMS AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
  OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
  WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  LINGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
  MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT
  THIS TIME.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
 THIS MORNING AND MAY BE NEED AGAIN ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
 EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE OZARK              38.20N  92.64W
06/15/2009  E1.68 INCH       MILLER             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RAINFALL SINCE 5 AM.

&&

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
710 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

MOZ070-151245-
PULASKI MO-
710 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PULASKI COUNTY UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 710 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CROCKER TO
RICHLAND...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF
WAYNESVILLE TO 10 MILES WEST OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN PULASKI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RICHLAND...
CROCKER...WAYNESVILLE...DIXON...ST. ROBERT AND FORT LEONARD WOOD...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
722 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BRUMLEY                 38.09N  92.49W
06/15/2009  E2.60 INCH       MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

            RAIN FELL IN 45 MINUTES.

&&

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
743 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

MOZ070-071-083-151315-
PULASKI MO-PHELPS MO-DENT MO-
743 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL PHELPS...EASTERN PULASKI AND
NORTHWESTERN DENT COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

AT 740 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF ST. ROBERT...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL PHELPS...EASTERN PULASKI AND NORTHWESTERN DENT
COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
755 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW IBERIA             38.14N  92.36W
06/15/2009                   MILLER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF 4 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER OVER THE ROAD AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 17 AND KK.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
801 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAVOIS MILLS           38.31N  92.83W
06/15/2009  E1.50 INCH       MORGAN             MO   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL SINCE 6 AM.

&&

HATCH