Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 152253
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

MOC065-161-152302-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0078.000000T0000Z-090615T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PHELPS MO-DENT MO-
553 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT FOR DENT AND
PHELPS COUNTIES...

WHILE RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...RUNOFF CONTINUES ACROSS 
DENT AND PHELPS COUNTIES.  AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR 
THESE COUNTIES IN MISSOURI SHORTLY.

LAT...LON 3758 9117 3758 9131 3751 9131 3750 9121
      3742 9122 3741 9122 3748 9176 3760 9177
      3760 9203 3801 9203 3801 9197 3806 9191
      3805 9164 3816 9164 3816 9154 3780 9153
      3779 9132 3771 9131 3769 9116

$$

KARDELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

AT 1 PM...THE CONVECTION EAST OF SPRINGFIELD ALONG THE WARM FRONT
IS NOW TAPPING SURFACE PARCELS AS THE MIXED LAYER INHIBITION FROM
THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ERODED. 700 MB DRY AIR IS ALSO BEGINNING TO
WORK ITS WAY OVER THIS AREA...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
DAMAGING WINDS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR IS ORIENTED ALONG THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTATION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS...TRENDING TO TOWARD MORE OF A HAIL THREAT AND A
DIMINISHED TORNADO THREAT.

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT WEST OF
SPRINGFIELD...BUT HAS NOT TAPPED SURFACE PARCELS AS OF YET.
HOWEVER...THE CAP IS STEADILY ERODING FROM EAST TO WEST SO
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT CAN BE
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

KARDELL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN
TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IF ITS ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF IT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
AROUND 10Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY AROUND 30 TO 35KT OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SHOULD VEER TO THE EAST AND NOSE INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AREA THIS MORNING
WITH GENERALLY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MU-CAPE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY
ACTIVITY THE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE STORMS TO THE WEST AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY SURFACE
BASED AND COULD REMAIN SURFACE BASED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT GREAT OVER THE AREA AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND -8 TO -9 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL AND SEVERE
THREAT THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A MARGINAL THREAT WITH
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. IF THE SUPERCELL TO THE WEST MAINTAINS
ITSELF THERE WILL BE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WITH THAT ACTIVITY.

FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL GENERALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN
THE WIND FIELDS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA BEFORE THE STORMS
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK
BRINGING AN END TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. UNDER THE RIDGE
MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S POSSIBLE. WITH THE RECENT RAINS THE GROUND IS
VERY GREEN AND MOIST AND THE MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING HIGHS
SOME...THUS HAVE UNDER CUT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER KANSAS BY THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANYING
THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
  FLOODING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...PRIMARILY
  NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO WEST PLAINS.

  AFTER 6 PM...AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI. CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND MOVE
  ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

  DISCUSSION:

  EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE
  WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEVADA TO EMINENCE WILL LIKELY TURN
  SEVERE QUICKLY WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE INSTABILITY. GOLF BALL
  SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...REDEVELOPMENT OF
  STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
  KANSAS. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN
  THIS AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN
  PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF GOLF BALLS....DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
  BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX
  OF STORMS AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
  MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN
  BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
  MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS
  TIME.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MANES               37.37N  92.37W
06/15/2009  E2.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            2 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN THE LAST HOUR.

1251 PM     HAIL             1 S MANES               37.37N  92.37W
06/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            2 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN THE LAST HOUR.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 PM     HAIL             1 S MANES               37.37N  92.37W
06/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            2 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN THE LAST HOUR.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1254 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

MOZ082-151830-
TEXAS MO-
1254 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM
CDT...

AT 1254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF HOUSTON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF HOUSTON AND
RAYMONDVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
149 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

MOZ105-151915-
OZARK MO-
149 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM
CDT...

AT 145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE...OR 19 MILES
SOUTH OF AVA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

RUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALTON                   36.69N 91.40W
06/15/2009                   OREGON             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS KNOCKED A TREE OVER ON A
            CAR IN ALTON.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HAIL             GAINESVILLE             36.60N 92.43W
06/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       OZARK              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DCRAMER