Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND WAS NEAR A FORT SCOTT TO EMINENCE LINE
AS OF 19Z. SURFACE BASED CAPES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
INCREASED TO AROUND 3000-3500 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT
FROM 40 TO 70 KTS. STORMS QUICKLY BECAME SUPERCELLULAR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH OF A
CAP YET AT SGF AS OF 19Z SOUNDING HOWEVER AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN(SEE 19Z OUN SOUNDING).

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP AGAIN AND FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. BULK OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR NORTH OF THE CWA WITH CENTRAL MO ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW. THIS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES
BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

MAY BE A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODELS HANDLE THIS TIME FRAME DIFFERENTLY AND
WITH FRONT NOT MOVING MUCH TO THE SOUTH CAN NOT RULE IT OUT
COMPLETELY. FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST
OF BOTH AIRFIELDS EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR MOTIONS SHOW
THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND UPDATE
TAFS AS NEEDED. CONVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. BOTH AIRPORTS
WILL BE IMPACTED AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE OCCURRING ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1053 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110400-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1053 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. COMMUNITIES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
NEOSHO TO CHRISTIAN CENTER TO WILLOW SPRINGS WILL BE MOST IMPACTED
BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING
LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT FOR COMMUNITIES
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEOSHO TO CHRISTIAN CENTER TO WILLOW SPRINGS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN MOVE NORTH BY SUNRISE AND
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF THIS LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1112 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N POLK                37.60N  94.74W
06/09/2009  E60 MPH          CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1122 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CASSVILLE               36.68N  93.87W
06/09/2009                   BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON FAIR STREET NEAR CROWER COLLEGE

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND GST     KIMBERLING CITY         36.63N  93.42W
06/09/2009  M47 MPH          STONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNW SLEEPER           37.83N  92.62W
06/09/2009                   LACLEDE            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE BB CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSW RICHLAND          37.80N  92.42W
06/09/2009                   LACLEDE            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE FF CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

KARDELL