Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

.UPDATE...
FORMATION OF SQUALL LINE IS IN PROGRESS WITH DRYLINE BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD AND FILL IN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST
TRACKING PLACES THE SQUALL LINE ALONG A SHERMAN...FORT WORTH...
LAMPASAS LINE AROUND MIDNIGHT. 00Z (6PM) FWD SOUNDING REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES NEAR 1850 J/KG...LI OF -5.9...AND STRONG WIND
SHEAR 0-3KM. MAX WIND IS 120 KTS AROUND 38 KFT. THE MOVEMENT OF
THE WESTERN STORMS IS ESTIMATED 220 DEGREES AT 38 KTS.

WILL ISSUE UPDATE ZONE PACKAGE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
AREAS FOR THE EVENING. ALSO...MODIFIED HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE EVENING
HOURS.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE EVENING AS FORCING FROM UPPER TROF TO THE WEST OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE
WILL MARCH ACROSS THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS LATER THIS EVENING. WILL
START OUT WITH A VCTS IN THE METROPLEX TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WITH MVFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SCATTERING OF THE
LOWER CIGS TO THE WEST. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 2-5Z
RIGHT NOW AND WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS AS NECESSARY. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE STRONG WEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF TSTMS. SEVERE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS. OTHER
CONCERN IS STRONG WEST WINDS BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A CROSSWIND PROBLEM ON N/S RUNWAYS TONIGHT.
ATTM...IT DOESNT APPEAR THE THE BLDU FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AS PRECIP SHOULD INHIBIT THIS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.     91/DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO ABILENE ALONG THE DRYLINE. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NOW MOVING THROUGH COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AND WILL PASS
ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CURRENT THOUGHTS
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS
STILL THE SAME AND REFER USERS TO CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCTS
/I.E. AWU...MCD...SWODY1/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LINE SHOULD BE CLEARING THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY 10 PM AND THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY 3 OR 4 AM.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER INCH TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT DUE TO THE QUICK
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LINE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN FOR STRONG
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND FRONT.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND VERY DRY AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WOULD SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT HOPE THAT DECENT RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL
MITIGATE FIRE THREAT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS
OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON RAIN COOLED AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE. HAVE GONE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH MAY END UP BEING TOO WARM.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS A
COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL MISS US TO THE NORTH AND CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS SLIM
THIS WEEK...BUT MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONE
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. AFTER TONIGHT/S PACIFIC
FRONT...NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED IS NOT TOO HIGH...BUT
MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE CLOSE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.   82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  46  69  42  72  51 / 100   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              46  73  38  74  51 / 100   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             47  66  38  68  44 / 100  10   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            45  69  36  73  49 / 100   0   0   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  67  36  71  48 / 100   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            48  71  43  73  51 / 100   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           47  69  38  71  49 /  90   0   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         47  73  43  73  48 /  80   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  73  40  73  51 /  90   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

 /75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
604 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS AS A STRONG SQUALL MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 8
AND 9 PM...THEN EXIT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 3 AM.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE..THEN FOR STRONG WEST WINDS BEHIND IT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY FOR
STRONG WEST WINDS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

TXZ100-115-110030-
YOUNG TX-STEPHENS TX-
555 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL STEPHENS COUNTY
  SOUTHERN YOUNG COUNTY

AT 555 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRAHAM AND CRYSTAL FALLS.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM.

LAT...LON 3297 9898 3297 9896 3299 9896 3324 9884
      3310 9848 3277 9891 3286 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 218DEG 44KT 3289 9891

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

TXZ129-110045-
EASTLAND TX-
615 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 615 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF CISCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CISCO...EASTLAND AND RANGER.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3252 9900 3251 9896 3251 9848 3218 9901
      3228 9913 3235 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 219DEG 51KT 3232 9900

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     10 W NOCONA             33.78N  97.90W
02/10/2009                   MONTAGUE           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RELAYED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
632 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

TXZ101-110100-
JACK TX-
632 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY

AT 632 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSBORO...MOVING NORTH AT
35 MPH.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3347 9798 3344 9798 3343 9792 3339 9792
      3318 9800 3328 9827 3348 9816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 199DEG 29KT 3332 9811

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
638 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TORNADO          5 E RINGGOLD            33.82N  97.86W
02/10/2009                   MONTAGUE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO CAPTURED ON VIDEO BY STORM CHASER BETWEEN 625 PM
            AND 630 PM. ONE STRUCTURE DESTROYED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

TXZ129-141-110130-
EASTLAND TX-COMANCHE TX-
655 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTY
  EASTERN EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 655 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GORMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DE LEON AND GORMAN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3220 9875 3250 9863 3250 9847 3230 9847
      3226 9855 3219 9850 3204 9854 3207 9876
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 223DEG 52KT 3222 9859