Storm Warning 219, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 041627 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

CORRECTED 125 130 132

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 970 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY INTENSIFIES TO
948 MB THIS EVENING 400 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. THIS LOW
SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 955 MB THU NIGHT 200 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT.


$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO E 50 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 22 FT.  RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT
THIS MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING BRIEFLY THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...BARREN ISLANDS W...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35
KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT EXCEPT 35 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 12
FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.  
.THU...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE GULF. CURRENTLY THE
DOUBLE-CENTER SOLUTION OVER THE GULF, WHICH IS DEPICTED WELL IN BOTH
THE NAM AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS IS PREFERRED OVER THE SINGLE-CENTER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD
THE GULF. A MODERATE LOW BENEATH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WITH
THE UPPER CENTER. A WEAKENING LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS EXTENDS A
WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND OVER BRISTOL BAY. A
DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND DEEPEN TO 960 MB WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND ABSORB THE FIRST LOW AS IT DEEPEN TO 948 MB THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
AND PUSH A WARM MARINE AIRMASS INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND KENAI
PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN BECOME SHOWERS THURSDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG OVER THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN
BECOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND
OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WILL
SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY. ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTION OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

BERING SEA...THE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE
NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
BERING WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE BERING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE BERING THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING LATE
THURSDAY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY. CLEARER AND COLDER
WEATHER WILL MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM...120 170 172
         GALE...125 130 132 140 141 155 165 171 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 09