Storm Warning 191, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 041257
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-050300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 972 MB LOW NEAR 58N 164W DISSIPATES WED AFTERNOON NEAR 58N 160W. A
970 MB LOW NEAR 53N 163W INTENSIFIES TO 951 MB WED AFTERNOON NEAR 53N
150W AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GULF. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR KAMCHATKA STRENGTHENS TO 1009 MB THU NIGHT NEAR 52N 176E.

$$

PKZ411-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT BUILDING TO 18 TO 22
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-050300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 050048
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-051300-
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 950 MB LOW NEAR 53N 150W WILL DEEPEN TO 947 MB IN THE GULF THU
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 964 MB IN THE NORTHEAST GULF FRI
AFTERNOON. A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 50N 171E THU AFTERNOON DEEPENS TO
1008 MB FRI AFTERNOON NEAR 50N 174W.

$$

PKZ411-051300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-051300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-051300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 TO 24 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-051300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA...ACROSS THE BERING
AND AKPEN TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ELONGATED LOW EXTENDS FROM KAMCHATKA TO COLD BAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE GULF...WITH CENTERS SOUTH OF THE GULF
AND IN THE EASTERN BERING. A DEVELOPING LOW IS SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA. A
WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN AK AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATING...WHILE A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ALCAN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF SPECIFIC
LOW CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ELONGATED LOW. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF
KAMCHATKA WILL INTENSIFY AND RACE EAST...MERGING FIRST WITH THE
EASTERN BERING LOW AND THEN WITH THE GULF LOW. THE RESULT WILL BE A
DEEP LOW THAT SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FORECAST
LEANS HEAVILY ON THE NAM SOLUTION INITIALLY TO CAPTURE DETAILS...AND
THEN BLENDS TOWARD THE GFS. THE EXTENDED SOLUTION IS A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GIVE WAY
TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA RACES EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW
SHOWERS...GALES...AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THESE WILL BE CUT OFF BY BRIEF RIDGING THU AND THEN AN APPROACHING
LOW AND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW FRI.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...THE DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING SNOW ONSHORE
TODAY WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. THIS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER IN THE DAY...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER 155 AND 152. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WED AND FINALLY
DISSIPATE LATER THU AS ALL OF THE LOWS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE GULF AND
COLD DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS TODAY ON ONSHORE FLOW WHILE
COLDER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED INLAND. AS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BERING MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY IT WILL CAUSES WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER MOUNTAIN RANGES ON WED...GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN ON THU. AS THE LOW CONSOLIDATES IN THE NORTHERN
GULF FRI IT WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...A DRYING RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE BERING SAT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A KAMCHATKA FRONT SPREADING RAIN ON SUN. SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHWEST AK ON SAT WITH DRYING ON SUN. SOUTHEAST OF THE AK
RANGE WILL EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND BENEATH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125
MARINE...STORM 120 130 170
        GALE 125 129 132 138 140 141 155 165 171 172 175 176 179 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 09