Gale Warning 831, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE GULF. CURRENTLY THE
DOUBLE-CENTER SOLUTION OVER THE GULF, WHICH IS DEPICTED WELL IN BOTH
THE NAM AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS IS PREFERRED OVER THE SINGLE-CENTER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD
THE GULF. A MODERATE LOW BENEATH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WITH
THE UPPER CENTER. A WEAKENING LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS EXTENDS A
WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND OVER BRISTOL BAY. A
DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND DEEPEN TO 960 MB WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND ABSORB THE FIRST LOW AS IT DEEPEN TO 948 MB THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
AND PUSH A WARM MARINE AIRMASS INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND KENAI
PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN BECOME SHOWERS THURSDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG OVER THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN
BECOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND
OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WILL
SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY. ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTION OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

BERING SEA...THE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE
NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
BERING WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE BERING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE BERING THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING LATE
THURSDAY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY. CLEARER AND COLDER
WEATHER WILL MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM...120 170 172
         GALE...125 130 132 140 141 155 165 171 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 09