Gale Warning 778, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 050048
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-051300-
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 950 MB LOW NEAR 53N 150W WILL DEEPEN TO 947 MB IN THE GULF THU
AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 964 MB IN THE NORTHEAST GULF FRI
AFTERNOON. A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 50N 171E THU AFTERNOON DEEPENS TO
1008 MB FRI AFTERNOON NEAR 50N 174W.

$$

PKZ411-051300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-051300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-051300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 TO 24 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-051300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
348 PM AKST WED NOV 4 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE GULF. CURRENTLY THE
DOUBLE-CENTER SOLUTION OVER THE GULF, WHICH IS DEPICTED WELL IN BOTH
THE NAM AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS IS PREFERRED OVER THE SINGLE-CENTER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD
THE GULF. A MODERATE LOW BENEATH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WITH
THE UPPER CENTER. A WEAKENING LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS EXTENDS A
WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND OVER BRISTOL BAY. A
DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS RAPIDLY MOVING EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND DEEPEN TO 960 MB WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND ABSORB THE FIRST LOW AS IT DEEPEN TO 948 MB THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
AND PUSH A WARM MARINE AIRMASS INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND KENAI
PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN BECOME SHOWERS THURSDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG OVER THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN
BECOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND
OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL SWING NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WILL
SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY. ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTION OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

BERING SEA...THE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE
NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
BERING WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE BERING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE BERING THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING LATE
THURSDAY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY. CLEARER AND COLDER
WEATHER WILL MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM...120 170 172
         GALE...125 130 132 140 141 155 165 171 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 09