Gale Warning 829, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 040241 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
540 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

UPDATED ZONE 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN TO 958 MB 
120 NM EAST OF KODIAK WED AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. A 992 MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL MOVE TO 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY AND STRENGTHEN TO 953 MB WED AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO 200
NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WITH A 948 MB CENTER THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
3 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
540 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT NE 50 KT WEST OF THE BARREN 
ISLANDS. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA...ACROSS THE BERING
AND AKPEN TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ELONGATED LOW EXTENDS FROM KAMCHATKA TO COLD BAY AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE GULF...WITH CENTERS SOUTH OF THE GULF
AND IN THE EASTERN BERING. A DEVELOPING LOW IS SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA. A
WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN AK AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATING...WHILE A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN ALCAN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF SPECIFIC
LOW CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ELONGATED LOW. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF
KAMCHATKA WILL INTENSIFY AND RACE EAST...MERGING FIRST WITH THE
EASTERN BERING LOW AND THEN WITH THE GULF LOW. THE RESULT WILL BE A
DEEP LOW THAT SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FORECAST
LEANS HEAVILY ON THE NAM SOLUTION INITIALLY TO CAPTURE DETAILS...AND
THEN BLENDS TOWARD THE GFS. THE EXTENDED SOLUTION IS A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GIVE WAY
TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA RACES EAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW
SHOWERS...GALES...AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THESE WILL BE CUT OFF BY BRIEF RIDGING THU AND THEN AN APPROACHING
LOW AND FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW FRI.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...THE DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING SNOW ONSHORE
TODAY WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. THIS WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN LATER IN THE DAY...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER 155 AND 152. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WED AND FINALLY
DISSIPATE LATER THU AS ALL OF THE LOWS CONSOLIDATE OVER THE GULF AND
COLD DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS TODAY ON ONSHORE FLOW WHILE
COLDER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED INLAND. AS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BERING MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY IT WILL CAUSES WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER MOUNTAIN RANGES ON WED...GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN ON THU. AS THE LOW CONSOLIDATES IN THE NORTHERN
GULF FRI IT WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...A DRYING RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE BERING SAT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A KAMCHATKA FRONT SPREADING RAIN ON SUN. SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHWEST AK ON SAT WITH DRYING ON SUN. SOUTHEAST OF THE AK
RANGE WILL EXPERIENCE DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND BENEATH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125
MARINE...STORM 120 130 170
        GALE 125 129 132 138 140 141 155 165 171 172 175 176 179 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 09