Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
341 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THE SUPERCELL STORM MOVING INTO WESTERN PITTSBURG
COUNTY HAS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT
...AT LEAST INTO THE MCALESTER AREA.  THIS
CELL AND OTHERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARIES AND HAVE A CHANCE
TO REMAIN DISCRETE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE CELL APPROACHING MCALESTER IS INGESTING
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY OF 500 M2/S2 THROUGH
1 KM.  THE CELL/S SLIGHTLY RIGHT MOTION IS RESULTING
IN A FAVORABLE WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION.  THE
CELL IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY FOR TORNADO
POTENTIAL.  EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS IN
PITTSBURG COUNTY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
121 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
121 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
        RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
        CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ENTIRE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
        AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER
        THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ENTIRE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I44.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 44 AT 1 PM. STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LIFT AND CREATE STRONG WIND
SHEAR OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...AND WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A DRY LINE FURTHER WEST OF THE AREA...AND MAY MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL...CAUSING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING A FEW STRONG LONG TRACK
TORNADOES...WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN
THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE TRIPLE POINT AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SOME TORNADO
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS...HP SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...WHICH MAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO SEE TORNADOES. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT
AND TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...SO THE THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. AREAS THAT RECEIVED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY AND YESTERDAY WILL BE AT A
PARTICULAR RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH /OKCFFATSA/.

THE SEVERE WEATHER MODE WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR SQUALL
LINE THREAT THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM...HIGH WIND...AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER
POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS NEXT POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
226 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BEGGS                   35.74N 96.07W
03/31/2008                   OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TURKEY CREEK BETWEEN THE CITY OF SLICK AND BEGGS IS OUT
            OF ITS BANKS

&&

DMJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
232 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             OKMULGEE                35.62N 95.96W
03/31/2008  E1.00 INCH       OKMULGEE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL OCCURRING AT THE LAW
            ENFORCEMENT OFFICE IN THE TOWN OF OKMULGEE

&&

DMJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
251 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PEGGS                   36.08N 95.10W
03/31/2008                   CHEROKEE           OK   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 82 FLOODED NEAR PEGGS.

0228 PM     HAIL             PEGGS                   36.08N 95.10W
03/31/2008  E0.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             GENTRY                  36.27N 94.48W
03/31/2008  E0.88 INCH       BENTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WYANDOTTE               36.79N 94.72W
03/31/2008                   OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN...BUILDINGS DAMAGED FROM WYANDOTTE ON EAST TO
            THE COUNTY LINE.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

ARZ002-010-011-019-020-312215-
CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
410 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN CARROLL...NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND
     MADISON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN FRANKLIN

AT 410 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF DENVER TO MAYFIELD TO LINCOLN...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN CARROLL...NORTHERN
CRAWFORD...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND MADISON COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS THROUGH 515 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3613 9327 3611 9345 3597 9342 3592 9349
      3575 9353 3576 9366 3572 9367 3566 9401
      3565 9447 3568 9449 3593 9452 3609 9407
      3647 9337 3647 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 271DEG 38KT 3645 9329 3613 9389
          3597 9440