Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 310857
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

OKC037-113-117-310930-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-080331T0930Z/
OSAGE OK-CREEK OK-PAWNEE OK-
358 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR PAWNEE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 356 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWNEE...
MANNFORD...SILVER CITY...OILTON...WESTPORT...RALSTON...CLEVELAND...
SKEDEE...BLACKBURN...MARAMEC...HALLETT...TERLTON...JENNINGS...
FAIRFAX...HOMINY AND OSAGE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3665 9668 3627 9614 3614 9630 3607 9630
      3604 9663 3616 9665 3616 9681 3624 9683
      3625 9691 3632 9694 3635 9705 3645 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 256DEG 21KT 3623 9700

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 310917
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
417 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

OKC037-113-117-310930-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-080331T0930Z/
OSAGE OK-CREEK OK-PAWNEE OK-
417 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR PAWNEE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 413 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. ROTATION HAS INCREASED 
WITHIN THIS STORM...AND SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE...TORNADO 
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWNEE...
MANNFORD...WESTPORT...RALSTON...CLEVELAND...SKEDEE...BLACKBURN...
MARAMEC...HALLETT...TERLTON...JENNINGS...FAIRFAX...HOMINY AND OSAGE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE COVER
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3665 9668 3627 9614 3614 9630 3610 9630
      3609 9662 3616 9665 3616 9681 3624 9683
      3625 9691 3632 9694 3635 9705 3645 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0917Z 250DEG 26KT 3625 9689

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY  FROM SOUTHWEST OK INTO SOUTHEAST
KS. AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY PROVIDING PRIMARY SEVERE HIGHWAY TONIGHT.
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PAWNEE OSAGE AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON MAY GET CLIPPED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SEVERE GRIDS AND POP / WX GRIDS
REFLECT THAT POTENTIAL.  MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ALL NIGHT.   FEW CHANGES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST RELEASE.

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY RATHER HIGH MONDAY...BE
PREPARED. LOCAL EXPERIMENTAL F2 POTENTIAL INDICATOR
JUST REACHES THRESHOLD VALUE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF TULSA FORECAST AREA.  GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS KEPT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S. BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EXTENDING NNW INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ALONG BOUNDARY INTERFACE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE -4 TO -5 RANGE.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION. COLD FRONT MAY INITIALLY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR SOME
OF THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO PAWNEE...OSAGE OR WASHINGTON COUNTIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON MONDAY AS 100 KT 300MB UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO REGION. GFS/NAM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH SURFACE FEATURES...PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO OSAGE COUNTY
AROUND 00Z WITH MESO LOW FORMING ALONG COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION
NEAR THIS VICINITY...WITH DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MOST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR NEAR MESO
LOW/TRIPLE POINT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 1000
J/KG WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS NEAR 2500 J/KG IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
TRIPLE POINT WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRY
LINE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE WILL LIKELY BE SUPER-CELLULAR IN
NATURE WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADIC THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WHERE
INSTABILITY/HELICITY WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED. EASTWARD MOVING
STORMS IN THIS ZONE WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE SWEEPING HODOGRAPHS
WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 400 (M/S)2 THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING
STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS COLD FRONT INITIALLY SAGS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 BY 06Z. ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE...FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF AREA BY 12Z.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  75  47  59 /  30  70  50  10
FSM   61  72  53  64 /  20  80  80  10
MLC   65  75  50  61 /  20  60  50  10
BVO   62  76  43  61 /  50  70  50  10
FYV   61  70  48  58 /  30  80  80  10
BYV   59  70  46  58 /  30  80  80  10
MKO   62  73  47  58 /  30  80  70  10
MIO   61  73  42  57 /  30  80  70  10
F10   63  75  45  59 /  30  60  50  10
HHW   65  74  57  67 /  20  60  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
228 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
228 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
        ONSET...AFTER 3 AM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 AM.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SLOW TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AFTER 3 AM.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH A LIMITED RISK OF TORNADOES AND
SEVERE WINDS.

OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
        HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND A DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES.  CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING HAIL AND STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS. SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENT NEAR AN
850 MB BOUNDARY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT.  AS THE COLD FRONT MIGRATES SOUTH
...CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR...INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN
AND REMAIN AWARE OF ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE AREA.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE STAFF AND SPOTTERS FOR DAMAGING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.