Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 310914
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
415 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

OKC113-117-311000-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-080331T1000Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
415 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR PAWNEE AND WESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 413 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF
RALSTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RALSTON...
FAIRFAX...APPERSON...BURBANK...WEBB CITY...SHIDLER AND FORAKER.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3692 9657 3653 9652 3637 9703 3651 9705
      3658 9691 3657 9703 3660 9707 3669 9709
      3673 9704 3670 9695 3677 9689 3679 9677
      3684 9677
TIME...MOT...LOC 0915Z 248DEG 28KT 3657 9696

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A WELL ADVERTISED VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY... LONG-LIVED SEVERE SUPERCELLS HAVE
TRAVELED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ARE ENTERING OSAGE...
PAWNEE... AND CREEK COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS TODAY... WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES FOCUSING MUCH OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SQUARELY
ON THE TSA FORECAST AREA.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND EAST OF A DRYLINE. FAIRLY STRONG
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING... A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK TRAVERSING THE
REGION... COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS
NORTH-EASTWARD WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF DISCREET
SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION... A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK... ELEVATING THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION... THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS... WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL YESTERDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE FORTHCOMING FOR THAT
AREA.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING... LIKELY PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR A SEVERE SQUALL LINE AS IT PASSES. PLEASE REFER TO OUR
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SHORT TERM FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION AS THIS WEATHER EVENT DEVELOPS TODAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM... CALM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE MOMENT... THIS
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO HAVE ITS SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA AND COULD VERY
WELL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REGION. STAY
TUNED... MID-WEEK FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEW INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  43  58  40 /  80  40   0  10
FSM   72  51  62  42 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   74  49  62  45 /  90  50   0  10
BVO   74  40  62  39 /  80  30   0  10
FYV   69  45  57  39 /  90  70   0  10
BYV   68  43  57  36 /  90  70   0  10
MKO   72  46  58  42 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   69  40  57  38 /  90  40   0  10
F10   73  47  59  43 /  80  40   0  10
HHW   75  62  66  50 /  70  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
228 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
228 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
        ONSET...AFTER 3 AM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 AM.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SLOW TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AFTER 3 AM.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH A LIMITED RISK OF TORNADOES AND
SEVERE WINDS.

OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
        HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND A DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES.  CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING HAIL AND STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS. SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENT NEAR AN
850 MB BOUNDARY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT.  AS THE COLD FRONT MIGRATES SOUTH
...CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR...INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN
AND REMAIN AWARE OF ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE AREA.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE STAFF AND SPOTTERS FOR DAMAGING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.