River Flood Warning 29, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS84 KTSA 311932
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
232 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ARKANSAS...
 
  ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN AFFECTING CRAWFORD AND SEBASTIAN 
  COUNTIES. 
  
ARC033-131-312002-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080401T1800Z/
/VBUA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
232 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN.
* AT 200 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.65 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT VAN BUREN CRESTED BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE AT 21.7 FEET.  THE RIVER WILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE 
  SHORELINE FROM THE I-540 BRIDGE EAST TOWARDS LAVACA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
404 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A WELL ADVERTISED VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY... LONG-LIVED SEVERE SUPERCELLS HAVE
TRAVELED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ARE ENTERING OSAGE...
PAWNEE... AND CREEK COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE AREA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS TODAY... WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURES FOCUSING MUCH OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SQUARELY
ON THE TSA FORECAST AREA.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION
SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND EAST OF A DRYLINE. FAIRLY STRONG
AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING... A MID LEVEL JET STREAK TRAVERSING THE
REGION... COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS
NORTH-EASTWARD WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF DISCREET
SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION... A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK... ELEVATING THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION... THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS... WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL YESTERDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE FORTHCOMING FOR THAT
AREA.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING... LIKELY PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR A SEVERE SQUALL LINE AS IT PASSES. PLEASE REFER TO OUR
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND SHORT TERM FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION AS THIS WEATHER EVENT DEVELOPS TODAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM... CALM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE MOMENT... THIS
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO HAVE ITS SIGHTS SET ON OUR AREA AND COULD VERY
WELL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REGION. STAY
TUNED... MID-WEEK FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEW INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  43  58  40 /  80  40   0  10
FSM   72  51  62  42 /  90  70  10  10
MLC   74  49  62  45 /  90  50   0  10
BVO   74  40  62  39 /  80  30   0  10
FYV   69  45  57  39 /  90  70   0  10
BYV   68  43  57  36 /  90  70   0  10
MKO   72  46  58  42 /  90  50   0  10
MIO   69  40  57  38 /  90  40   0  10
F10   73  47  59  43 /  80  40   0  10
HHW   75  62  66  50 /  70  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06

BAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
534 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ENTIRE AREA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ENTIRE AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE... A WARM... MOIST... AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS... EXACERBATED BY GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING... WILL RESIDE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND A DRYLINE TO OUR WEST WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

THE FIRST ROUND IS ALREADY ONGOING THIS MORNING... GENERALLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 44. THIS IS THE REMNANT COMPLEX FROM OVERNIGHT
SUPERCELLS INITIATED SUNDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AS
DISCREET SUPERCELLS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST... LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AN ENHANCED TORNADO
THREAT ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE A THREAT
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THAT RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL YESTERDAY WILL
BE AT A PARTICULAR RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY.

THE SEVERE WEATHER MODE WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR SQUALL
LINE THREAT THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT... ALONG WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE... ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY... ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY AS A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH ON A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS NEXT POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
436 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     HAIL             2 S PAWNEE              36.31N 96.80W
03/31/2008  E2.50 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RELAYED BY PAWNEE FIRE DEPT.

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 AM     HAIL             4 N HOMINY              36.47N 96.39W
03/31/2008  E0.75 INCH       OSAGE              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
743 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

OKZ058-311330-
OTTAWA OK-
743 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 743 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF COMMERCE TO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NARCISSA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...NARCISSA...
WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW AND CARDIN.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9462 3680 9462 3672 9500 3672 9501
      3673 9502 3695 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1243Z 244DEG 32KT 3693 9494 3668 9516

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
803 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

OKZ054-055-311400-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
803 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OSAGE

AT 803 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTH OF BARNSDALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...AVANT...WOLCO...BARNSDALL...
TALLANT...VERA...RAMONA AND OCHELATA.

LAT...LON 3676 9591 3644 9586 3642 9616 3658 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 1303Z 241DEG 30KT 3655 9611