Severe Thunderstorm Warning 480, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 221825
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
125 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

MOC077-225-221900-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0480.000000T0000Z-080722T1900Z/
GREENE MO-WEBSTER MO-
125 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENE AND SOUTHERN WEBSTER COUNTIES...

AT 122 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTHVIEW...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
STRAFFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 24 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORDLAND BY 135 PM CDT.
  DIGGINS BY 140 PM CDT.
  SEYMOUR BY 155 PM CDT.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 87 AND 99.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3710 9308 3720 9310 3724 9312 3725 9311
      3726 9313 3734 9314 3734 9286 3713 9268
      3712 9269 3709 9290 3709 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 302DEG 21KT 3721 9297

$$

HATCH

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 221844
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
144 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

MOC077-221854-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0480.000000T0000Z-080722T1900Z/
GREENE MO-
144 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3710 9306 3717 9306 3720 9290 3719 9273
      3713 9268 3712 9269 3709 9290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 354DEG 46KT 3708 9288

$$

MOC225-221900-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0480.000000T0000Z-080722T1900Z/
WEBSTER MO-
144 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY...

AT 141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORDLAND...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF
MARSHFIELD...MOVING SOUTH AT 52 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3710 9306 3717 9306 3720 9290 3719 9273
      3713 9268 3712 9269 3709 9290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 354DEG 46KT 3708 9288

$$

HATCH

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 221855
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
156 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

MOC057-077-109-221906-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0479.000000T0000Z-080722T1900Z/
LAWRENCE MO-GREENE MO-DADE MO-
156 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...
SOUTHEASTERN DADE AND SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 200 PM
CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3713 9373 3726 9388 3736 9365 3728 9355
      3717 9354 3710 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 335DEG 15KT 3720 9374

$$

HATCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWARD TURN TO THE CONVECTION ALONG A LOW
LEVEL THETA E GRADIENT. HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL WITH
THESE STORMS IN THE LSX CWA. THESE HAIL REPORTS CORRELATED WELL
WITH 55 DBZ REFLECTIVITIES TO AROUND 30 KFT MSL. A COUPLE OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE DRAPED ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS. ONE SUCH
BOUNDARY IS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER
MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO WEST
PLAINS.

KSGF MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS A FEW INTERESTING FEATURES. FIRST
OFF...THIS RAOB EXHIBITS A DECENT WET/HYBRID MICROBURST SIGNATURE.
THIS IS FURTHER BACKED BY THE THETA E DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND AROUND 700 MB. ALSO...A MODIFIED SOUNDING YIELDS
AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER. WITH
ALL THAT SAID...WILL NEED TO WATCH STORMS CLOSELY TODAY AS
MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS UP THERE. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THIS
MULTICELL CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SEVERE WINDS ALONG ANY SEGMENTS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD.
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IS ALSO THERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. MEAN STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT TODAY
EITHER...SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS.

INITIAL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THAT CLUSTER OF STORMS TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG THAT THETA
E GRADIENT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS THEN EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HAVE UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
TO COVER THIS THINKING. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
CATEGORIES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI DUE TO EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER. UPDATES ALREADY SENT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA WITH MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. RADAR AS OF 07Z SHOWING A LONE CELL OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT MAIN ORGANIZED WEATHER WILL REMAIN AROUND MAIN
SURFACE FRONT AND ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING POSITIONED
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CHANGE TO
A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE CWA TODAY AND BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TODAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
FRONT/OUTFLOWS ACTING AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS
CORRIDOR MAY BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE MORE TRICKY
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FROM CURRENT MCS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE CWA.
WHILE THAT AREA HAS HAD THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW
DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLER SPOT TODAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WHILE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MCS
ACTIVITY AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT FURTHER SOUTH FROM CURRENT
COMPLEX WHICH IS AFFECTING NORTHERN MISSOURI.

MODELS SHIFT MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS FURTHER SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
AND LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THEN.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY THURSDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
AROUND STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT
  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
  TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
  MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
  HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
  OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE
  REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
  WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
  OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.

  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT
  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALL BE
  POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A
  DAILY BASIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
  WEEKEND AS SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
  AND INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
  ACROSS ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN