Severe Thunderstorm Warning 476, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 220804
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
304 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

MOC153-220845-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0476.000000T0000Z-080722T0845Z/
OZARK MO-
304 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN OZARK COUNTY...

AT 300 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR SUNDOWN...OR ALONG THE LITTLE NORTH FORK 
ARM OF BULL SHOALS LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 16 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE 
OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE BY 340 AM CDT.

THE TOWN OF PONTIAC IS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3650 9276 3665 9269 3670 9212 3649 9213
      3649 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 282DEG 14KT 3653 9264

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 220817
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

MOC153-220845-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0476.000000T0000Z-080722T0845Z/
OZARK MO-
316 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN OZARK COUNTY...

AT 314 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF 
GAINESVILLE TO PONTIAC...MOVING EAST AT 16 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GAINESVILLE BY 330 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF HARDENVILLE...TECUMSEH AND UDALL ARE IN THE PATH OF
THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LITTLE NORTH FORK ARM OF BULL SHOALS LAKE WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED 
BY THESE STORMS.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3650 9276 3665 9269 3670 9212 3649 9213
      3649 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 282DEG 14KT 3666 9244 3653 9261

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 220834
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
334 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

MOC153-220844-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0476.000000T0000Z-080722T0845Z/
OZARK MO-
334 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN OZARK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WERE NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3650 9276 3665 9269 3670 9212 3649 9213
      3649 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 282DEG 14KT 3664 9235 3652 9253

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA WITH MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. RADAR AS OF 07Z SHOWING A LONE CELL OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT MAIN ORGANIZED WEATHER WILL REMAIN AROUND MAIN
SURFACE FRONT AND ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING POSITIONED
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CHANGE TO
A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE CWA TODAY AND BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TODAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
FRONT/OUTFLOWS ACTING AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS
CORRIDOR MAY BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE MORE TRICKY
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FROM CURRENT MCS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE CWA.
WHILE THAT AREA HAS HAD THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW
DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLER SPOT TODAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE CWA WILL LIKLEY REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WHILE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MCS
ACTIVITY AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT FURTHER SOUTH FROM CURRENT
COMPLEX WHICH IS AFFECTING NORTHERN MISSOURI.

MODELS SHIFT MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS FURTHER SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
AND LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THEN.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY THURSDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND A SFC
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CONTROL MO. THE WEAK FRONT WILL EASE
SOUTH INTO THE MO OZARKS TUE BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION/TSTMS. WILL KEEP TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
DAY TUE...WITH ONLY SOME BRIEF LOWERING OF VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUE FOR HAZE AND LIGHT FOG...THEN VFR CEILINGS WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONVECTION. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
914 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-230215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
914 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 1 AM. AREAS NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO LEBANON TO SALEM WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAIL UP TO ONCE INCH
DIAMETER AND 60 MPH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO
CASSVILLE.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA...PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE WIND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
NEARLY EVERY DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BARJENBRUCH/DSA