Severe Thunderstorm Warning 479, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWARD TURN TO THE CONVECTION ALONG A LOW
LEVEL THETA E GRADIENT. HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL WITH
THESE STORMS IN THE LSX CWA. THESE HAIL REPORTS CORRELATED WELL
WITH 55 DBZ REFLECTIVITIES TO AROUND 30 KFT MSL. A COUPLE OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE DRAPED ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS. ONE SUCH
BOUNDARY IS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER
MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO WEST
PLAINS.

KSGF MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS A FEW INTERESTING FEATURES. FIRST
OFF...THIS RAOB EXHIBITS A DECENT WET/HYBRID MICROBURST SIGNATURE.
THIS IS FURTHER BACKED BY THE THETA E DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND AROUND 700 MB. ALSO...A MODIFIED SOUNDING YIELDS
AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER. WITH
ALL THAT SAID...WILL NEED TO WATCH STORMS CLOSELY TODAY AS
MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS UP THERE. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THIS
MULTICELL CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SEVERE WINDS ALONG ANY SEGMENTS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD.
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IS ALSO THERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. MEAN STORM MOTIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT TODAY
EITHER...SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS.

INITIAL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THAT CLUSTER OF STORMS TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG THAT THETA
E GRADIENT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS THEN EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HAVE UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
TO COVER THIS THINKING. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
CATEGORIES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI DUE TO EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER. UPDATES ALREADY SENT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES.

MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA WITH MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. RADAR AS OF 07Z SHOWING A LONE CELL OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT MAIN ORGANIZED WEATHER WILL REMAIN AROUND MAIN
SURFACE FRONT AND ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING POSITIONED
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CHANGE TO
A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE CWA TODAY AND BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TODAY
AS TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
FRONT/OUTFLOWS ACTING AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS
CORRIDOR MAY BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE MORE TRICKY
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FROM CURRENT MCS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE CWA.
WHILE THAT AREA HAS HAD THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW
DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLER SPOT TODAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WHILE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MCS
ACTIVITY AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT FURTHER SOUTH FROM CURRENT
COMPLEX WHICH IS AFFECTING NORTHERN MISSOURI.

MODELS SHIFT MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS FURTHER SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
AND LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THEN.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY THURSDAY WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
AROUND STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
440 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-230945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
440 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

 AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS MORNING AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI MOVES SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATER TODAY. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIDING IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A DAILY
BASIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG