Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE HIGHWAY 65
CORRIDOR WITH A MYRIAD OF SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
HEATING HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO RECOVER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG
OBSERVED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. WHILE WINDS ALOFT ARE
RATHER WEAK...THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES SHOULD SERVE AS SUFFICIENT
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO SPRINGFIELD. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO A RISK OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SCT TSRA WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HAZY/LIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE. NAM INDICATES SOME SEMBLANCE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING OVER E KS/W CEN MO TOWARDS SUNRISE AND HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHC POPS IN RESPONSE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS A
FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES SLIDE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND
EVEN THE LOWER 80S IN SPOTS. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS
WELL...IN THE 50S AND 60S. MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AS PWS RISE
BACK INTO THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE
MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PREFERRED...WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
EACH PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME DRY TIME. MODELS HAVE
BEEN HONING IN ON LATE WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AND FRIDAY AS THE
BETTER PERIODS FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR LATE WED NIGHT/THUR...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS THAN IDEAL CLIMATOLOGY WISE. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EARLY
THURSDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...00Z SUITE OF MODELS
CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT RATHER STAUNCH DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS HAS GIVEN A TREND
TOWARD A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW WE GET TO THIS TROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING A BIT THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS LEFT TO BE ANSWERED AT THIS POINT IS
WHAT KIND OF SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...
DELIVERING THIS COOLER AIRMASS. THE GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE BULLISH
WITH DEVELOPING A MORE ROBUST AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
RESERVED WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAN ON THIS SOLUTION.

HAVE INTRODUCED LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING
SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW. HAVE CUT TEMPS QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...ABOUT
10 TO 15F BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. IF A TROUGH WITH THE INTENSITY
OF THE ECMWF COMES TO FRUITION...WILL NEED TO CUT THESE TEMPS
FURTHER TO ABOUT 20F BELOW AVERAGE.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE OBSERVED AT BOTH TAF SITES AS
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH AERODROMES.
LIGHT FOG AND CIG REDUCTIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
 FROM JOPLIN...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO ROUND SPRING IN SHANNON COUNTY.

  DISCUSSION:

 REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
 THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
 THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
 COLD FRONT...AND NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM RAINFALL THIS
 MORNING. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL
 TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE PRIMARY
 HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

 SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
 STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

 THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS A COLD
 FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
 ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO ROUND
 SPRING IN SHANNON COUNTY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
514 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     HAIL             SELIGMAN                36.52N 93.94W
04/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             SELIGMAN                36.52N 93.94W
04/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

RKARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
517 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             MONETT                  36.92N 93.93W
04/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

RKARDELL

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