Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.UPDATE...

JUST DID SOME QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO 00Z SOUNDING FOR NEW 12Z
DATA...THE CAP IS PRETTY MUCH GONE AS WE HAVE COOLED TO AROUND 4
DEG C AT 700 MB. MODS TO THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATE THAT STORMS
ARE STILL NOT ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIFTING PARCELS AROUND
900 MB GIVE CAPES AROUND 2500 WITH MINIMAL CINH. THE ONLY NEGATIVE
FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MOVEMENT AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL
MOIST AXIS. THIS HOWEVER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE SLOWING STORMS DOWN
MUCH.

EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FRONT
TO OUR WEST HAS FINALLY BEGUN SHIFTING EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE POPPING OVER OUR KANSAS
AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTED WITH A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
ALONG THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. CAPPING INVERSION HAS SUPPRESSED
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE THIS AREA SO FAR.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...STILL FURTHER WEST
THAN ANTICIPATED BY EARLIER FORECAST. SO OVERALL SHORT TERM TREND
CONTINUES TO BE LAGGING ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ALSO DECREASED WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000
J/KG...SO EXPECT SOME STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE POTENTIAL.

STILL COULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MOST AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OZARKS AND
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WASH OUT NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

STORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MAIN REASON FOR NOW GOING COMPLETELY GUNG HO WITH POPS IS
LACK OF A FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THAT TIME THE MAIN SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY
40-50 PERCENT POPS.

WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREAFTER WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

LARGE DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS FROM SUNDAY ON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GFS PRODUCING A SHARPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE MVFR CEILINGS AND VICINITY
THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME
TEMPO THUNDER GROUPS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
IMPROVING CEILINGS SHORTLY AFTER OOZ AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

TERRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
738 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231245-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
738 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 HALF DOLLARS...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 60 MPH AND AND
 TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY
 EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

 SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY IN PROGRESS
 THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
 AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
 WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
 AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THESE
 STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG STRAIGHT
 LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

 SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEDNESDAY
 NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
 SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
 ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
728 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 AM     HAIL             FORT LEONARD WOOD       37.71N 92.16W
04/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       PULASKI            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
730 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     HAIL             CARL JUNCTION           37.18N 94.57W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
733 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     HAIL             3 ESE WAYNESVILLE       37.81N 92.15W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
736 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HAIL             WHEATLAND               37.95N 93.40W
04/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       HICKORY            MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
741 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     HAIL             BUFFALO                 37.64N 93.09W
04/22/2008  E0.50 INCH       DALLAS             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
744 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 AM     HAIL             7 WSW EDGAR SPRINGS     37.67N 91.98W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       PHELPS             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HATCH