Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE POPPING OVER OUR KANSAS
AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTED WITH A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
ALONG THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. CAPPING INVERSION HAS SUPPRESSED
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE THIS AREA SO FAR.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...STILL FURTHER WEST
THAN ANTICIPATED BY EARLIER FORECAST. SO OVERALL SHORT TERM TREND
CONTINUES TO BE LAGGING ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ALSO DECREASED WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000
J/KG...SO EXPECT SOME STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE POTENTIAL.

STILL COULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MOST AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OZARKS AND
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WASH OUT NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

STORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MAIN REASON FOR NOW GOING COMPLETELY GUNG HO WITH POPS IS
LACK OF A FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THAT TIME THE MAIN SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY
40-50 PERCENT POPS.

WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREAFTER WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

LARGE DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS FROM SUNDAY ON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GFS PRODUCING A SHARPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

TERRY

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE TAF
PERIOD DEALS WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...FIRST AT THE KJLN SITE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN
INTO THE KSGF NEAR DAY BREAK. MVFR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
508 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS... DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 60 MPH AND AND
 TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROLLA TO JOPLIN THIS
 MORNING...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

 SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY IN PROGRESS THIS
 MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
 CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL
 TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

 OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG AND
 AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY
 RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
 NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME
 STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF
 INTERSTATE 44...AND OVER THE ENTIRE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

MOZ066-077-078-089-220815-
DADE MO-BARTON MO-CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-
245 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN BARTON...NORTHWESTERN
DADE...SOUTHEASTERN VERNON AND WESTERN CEDAR COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM
CDT...

AT 243 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF SHELDON...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF
LAMAR...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN BARTON...NORTHWESTERN DADE...SOUTHEASTERN VERNON
AND WESTERN CEDAR COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF SHELDON...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     HAIL             6 N LAMAR               37.58N 94.28W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       BARTON             MO   PUBLIC

&&

MTERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

MOZ055>057-067>069-221115-
HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
515 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BENTON...CAMDEN...MILLER...MORGAN...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR AND NORTHERN HICKORY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM
CDT...

AT 513 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
OTTERVILLE TO 6 MILES EAST OF COLE CAMP TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WARSAW...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF TIPTON TO
15 MILES WEST OF VERSAILLES TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARSAW...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     HAIL             COLE CAMP               38.46N 93.20W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       BENTON             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
550 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     HAIL             6 W EDWARDS             38.14N 93.28W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       BENTON             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

HATCH