Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.UPDATE...

JUST DID SOME QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO 00Z SOUNDING FOR NEW 12Z
DATA...THE CAP IS PRETTY MUCH GONE AS WE HAVE COOLED TO AROUND 4
DEG C AT 700 MB. MODS TO THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATE THAT STORMS
ARE STILL NOT ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIFTING PARCELS AROUND
900 MB GIVE CAPES AROUND 2500 WITH MINIMAL CINH. THE ONLY NEGATIVE
FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MOVEMENT AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL
MOIST AXIS. THIS HOWEVER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE SLOWING STORMS DOWN
MUCH.

EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FRONT
TO OUR WEST HAS FINALLY BEGUN SHIFTING EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE POPPING OVER OUR KANSAS
AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTED WITH A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
ALONG THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. CAPPING INVERSION HAS SUPPRESSED
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE THIS AREA SO FAR.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...STILL FURTHER WEST
THAN ANTICIPATED BY EARLIER FORECAST. SO OVERALL SHORT TERM TREND
CONTINUES TO BE LAGGING ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ALSO DECREASED WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000
J/KG...SO EXPECT SOME STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE POTENTIAL.

STILL COULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MOST AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OZARKS AND
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WASH OUT NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

STORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MAIN REASON FOR NOW GOING COMPLETELY GUNG HO WITH POPS IS
LACK OF A FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THAT TIME THE MAIN SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY
40-50 PERCENT POPS.

WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREAFTER WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

LARGE DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS FROM SUNDAY ON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GFS PRODUCING A SHARPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE MVFR CEILINGS AND VICINITY
THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME
TEMPO THUNDER GROUPS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
IMPROVING CEILINGS SHORTLY AFTER OOZ AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

TERRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
508 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS... DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 60 MPH AND AND
 TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROLLA TO JOPLIN THIS
 MORNING...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

 SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY IN PROGRESS THIS
 MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
 CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL
 TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

 OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG AND
 AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY
 RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
 NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME
 STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF
 INTERSTATE 44...AND OVER THE ENTIRE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
705 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WINDYVILLE              37.71N 92.93W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       DALLAS             MO   PUBLIC

            RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL FELL IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 AM     HAIL             BUFFALO                 37.64N 93.09W
04/22/2008  E0.25 INCH       DALLAS             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
712 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 AM     HAIL             5 W LEBANON             37.68N 92.75W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
713 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     HAIL             LAMAR                   37.49N 94.28W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       BARTON             MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 AM     HAIL             6 SE LEBANON            37.62N 92.59W
04/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
720 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     HAIL             3 WSW ALDRICH           37.53N 93.61W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       POLK               MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH