Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 221210
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

MOC011-221221-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-080422T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARTON MO-
711 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BARTON COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3765 9461 3764 9408 3760 9408 3743 9409
      3743 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1211Z 180DEG 0KT 3755 9429

$$

JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
217 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE POPPING OVER OUR KANSAS
AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTED WITH A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
ALONG THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. CAPPING INVERSION HAS SUPPRESSED
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE THIS AREA SO FAR.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...STILL FURTHER WEST
THAN ANTICIPATED BY EARLIER FORECAST. SO OVERALL SHORT TERM TREND
CONTINUES TO BE LAGGING ONSET OF PRECIP A LITTLE FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCREASED COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ALSO DECREASED WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000
J/KG...SO EXPECT SOME STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE POTENTIAL.

STILL COULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MOST AREAS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OZARKS AND
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WASH OUT NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

STORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MAIN REASON FOR NOW GOING COMPLETELY GUNG HO WITH POPS IS
LACK OF A FRONT OVER OUR AREA. AT THAT TIME THE MAIN SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY
40-50 PERCENT POPS.

WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREAFTER WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

LARGE DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS FROM SUNDAY ON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GFS PRODUCING A SHARPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

TERRY

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE TAF
PERIOD DEALS WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...FIRST AT THE KJLN SITE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN
INTO THE KSGF NEAR DAY BREAK. MVFR CONDITION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1129 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-222015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1129 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  AREAS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WEST
  OF A LINE FROM WARSAW IN BENTON COUNTY TO SPRINGFIELD TO
  CASSVILLE IN BARRY COUNTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

  DISCUSSION:

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
 ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
 EAST...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREME
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY MORNING
 HOURS. INSTABILITY PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE
 STRONG...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
 THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
 AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WARSAW IN BENTON
 COUNTY TO SPRINGFIELD TO CASSVILLE IN BARRY COUNTY. AS A
 RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING
  ALONG A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
  THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
  AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BE
  STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR COMMUNITIES WEST OF A LINE
 FROM NEVADA TO JOPLIN AFTER 3 AM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

KSZ097-220700-
CRAWFORD KS-
111 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 200
AM CDT...

AT 106 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WALNUT...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
ST. PAUL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 36 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GIRARD BY 120 AM CDT.
  ENGLEVALE AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARMA BY 135 AM CDT.
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MULBERRY BY 140 AM CDT.
  ARCADIA BY 145 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF FARLINGTON...POLK AND CROWEBURG ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
GIRARD...ENGLEVALE AND ARCADIA...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 AM     HAIL             3 NW LAMAR HEIGHTS      37.52N 94.34W
04/22/2008  M0.50 INCH       BARTON             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MTERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

MOZ066-077-078-089-220815-
DADE MO-BARTON MO-CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-
245 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN BARTON...NORTHWESTERN
DADE...SOUTHEASTERN VERNON AND WESTERN CEDAR COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM
CDT...

AT 243 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF SHELDON...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF
LAMAR...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN BARTON...NORTHWESTERN DADE...SOUTHEASTERN VERNON
AND WESTERN CEDAR COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF SHELDON...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

WISE