Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED IN WESTERN OK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE NOW
MOVED INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NEWD THIS MORNING WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY
AS FRONT/DRYLINE MOVE INTO THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FIRE WX WILL BE A CONCERN IN
WESTERN AREAS TODAY WITH VERY LOW RH BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND STRONG SW TO WEST
WINDS. SEVERE WX THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS CNTRAL
AND ERN AREAS AS DRYLINE FRONT INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES. GENLY FOLLOWED GFS SOLN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD WITH SHOWERS/TSTM CHANCES LATE
TUESDAY/WED IN DEELOPING WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF S/W TROUGH APCHG
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
FRONT DRYLINE AS THE S/W CONTINUES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MAINLY
DRY WX THEN EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN U.S.
WITH NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  46  62  45 /  50  20   0  10
HOBART OK         84  40  62  41 /  30  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  45  67  46 /  40  10   0  30
GAGE OK           75  37  61  40 /  20  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  43  60  41 /  60  20   0  10
DURANT OK         79  51  66  51 /  60  40  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-311200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1118 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE TO PURCELL TO
CLINTON TO FREEDOM.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 3
AM... BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER AROUND 3 AM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE RISK
AREA SHOULD REMAIN READY TO INITIATE OR MAINTAIN SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. UPPER
AIR DATA SUNDAY EVENING INDICATE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... SUPPORTING CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING ALSO WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... AND AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES THROUGH AROUND 3 AM.

GRADUALLY...STORM MERGERS...AND THE ONSET OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...WILL CREATE A TRANSITION TOWARD MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THREATS FOR HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN TONIGHT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAR 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...LIKELY GENERATING A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. AS OFTEN OCCURS IN EARLY SPRING...THERE WILL
BE A QUESTION OF WHETHER LOW LEVELS WILL RECOVER AND BECOME UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS
OCCURS...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WITH THESE STORMS
POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND A DRYLINE DEVELOPS NEAR THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
EXTREME WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DUE TO WARM...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY BE UPDATED AGAIN BEFORE THE NEXT
SCHEDULED OUTLOOK AT 7 AM MONDAY.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
210 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND GST     LAHOMA                  36.39N 98.09W
03/31/2008  E60 MPH          GARFIELD           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
224 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW EDMOND            35.66N 97.51W
03/31/2008                   OKLAHOMA           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES DOWN AND POWER POLES ACROSS ROAD NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF DANFORTH AND SANTA FE.

&&

TAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
229 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW EDMOND             35.69N 97.53W
03/31/2008                   OKLAHOMA           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            DEBRIS IN ROAD. ROOF DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED.

&&

TAYLOR

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>