Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
221 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...
GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WERE ADJUSTED WITH RUC13 TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS AND CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT THE COLD FRONT AND
DRYLINE. OTHER GRIDS REMAIN AS POPULATED LAST NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  62  45  53 /  20   0  10  50
HOBART OK         40  62  41  57 /  10   0  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  67  46  64 /  10   0  30  40
GAGE OK           37  61  40  56 /  10   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     43  60  41  52 /  20   0  10  50
DURANT OK         51  66  51  61 /  40  10  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ033-036-037.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1118 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SURROUNDS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA...AND COVERS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM STROUD TO SHAWNEE...TO
DUNCAN...AND DOWN THROUGH CLAY COUNTY TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
EXTENDS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...TO A LINE RUNNING FROM PERRY TO
WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS...AND DOWN THROUGH WILBARGER AND BAYLOR
COUNTIES IN TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONGOING IN AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE RISK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MODERATE RISK AREA BETWEEN
2 PM AND 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GOLFBALL SIZE
HAIL AND 65 MPH WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL LOCALLY UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OF
75 MPH. THERE WILL BE A GREATER THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE RISK
AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID EVENING...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER A BROAD AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED HEATING WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG A COLD
FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED...BUT MAY BECOME LARGE AND
QUITE SEVERE. IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...WIND FIELDS AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A FEW CLASSIC SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS FOR
VERY LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL...LOCALLY VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND
TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EDGE OF A LOW LEVEL JET.

BY EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...EXTENDING UP THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SURROUNDING
STATES...BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
WITH ANY LATE NIGHT STORMS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY
AFTER 11 PM.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 01.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WEST WINDS WILL BRING GRADUAL DRIER AIR TO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER WILL PEAK IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH STORMS WELL DOWN INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN BOTH OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

THURSDAY IS A PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CAREFULLY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE AN
OUTBREAK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...AT LEAST IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA. IF THE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES SLOWER...A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY TAKE PLACE OVER MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

UNSCHEDULED UPDATES TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BURKE

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