Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED IN WESTERN OK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE NOW
MOVED INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NEWD THIS MORNING WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY
AS FRONT/DRYLINE MOVE INTO THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FIRE WX WILL BE A CONCERN IN
WESTERN AREAS TODAY WITH VERY LOW RH BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND STRONG SW TO WEST
WINDS. SEVERE WX THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS CNTRAL
AND ERN AREAS AS DRYLINE FRONT INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES. GENLY FOLLOWED GFS SOLN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD WITH SHOWERS/TSTM CHANCES LATE
TUESDAY/WED IN DEELOPING WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF S/W TROUGH APCHG
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
FRONT DRYLINE AS THE S/W CONTINUES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MAINLY
DRY WX THEN EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN U.S.
WITH NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  46  62  45 /  50  20   0  10
HOBART OK         84  40  62  41 /  30  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  45  67  46 /  40  10   0  30
GAGE OK           75  37  61  40 /  20  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  43  60  41 /  60  20   0  10
DURANT OK         79  51  66  51 /  60  40  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1118 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SURROUNDS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA...AND COVERS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM STROUD TO SHAWNEE...TO
DUNCAN...AND DOWN THROUGH CLAY COUNTY TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
EXTENDS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...TO A LINE RUNNING FROM PERRY TO
WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS...AND DOWN THROUGH WILBARGER AND BAYLOR
COUNTIES IN TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONGOING IN AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE RISK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MODERATE RISK AREA BETWEEN
2 PM AND 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GOLFBALL SIZE
HAIL AND 65 MPH WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL LOCALLY UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OF
75 MPH. THERE WILL BE A GREATER THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE RISK
AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST MID EVENING...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER A BROAD AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED HEATING WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...TO PROMOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG A COLD
FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER
SOUTH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED...BUT MAY BECOME LARGE AND
QUITE SEVERE. IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...WIND FIELDS AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A FEW CLASSIC SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS FOR
VERY LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL...LOCALLY VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND
TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EDGE OF A LOW LEVEL JET.

BY EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...EXTENDING UP THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SURROUNDING
STATES...BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
WITH ANY LATE NIGHT STORMS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY
AFTER 11 PM.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 01.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WEST WINDS WILL BRING GRADUAL DRIER AIR TO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER WILL PEAK IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH STORMS WELL DOWN INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THE
MAIN IMPACTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN BOTH OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

THURSDAY IS A PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CAREFULLY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE AN
OUTBREAK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...AT LEAST IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA. IF THE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES SLOWER...A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY TAKE PLACE OVER MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

UNSCHEDULED UPDATES TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BURKE

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