Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED IN WESTERN OK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE NOW
MOVED INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NEWD THIS MORNING WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY
AS FRONT/DRYLINE MOVE INTO THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FIRE WX WILL BE A CONCERN IN
WESTERN AREAS TODAY WITH VERY LOW RH BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND STRONG SW TO WEST
WINDS. SEVERE WX THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS CNTRAL
AND ERN AREAS AS DRYLINE FRONT INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES. GENLY FOLLOWED GFS SOLN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD WITH SHOWERS/TSTM CHANCES LATE
TUESDAY/WED IN DEELOPING WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF S/W TROUGH APCHG
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
FRONT DRYLINE AS THE S/W CONTINUES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MAINLY
DRY WX THEN EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN U.S.
WITH NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  46  62  45 /  50  20   0  10
HOBART OK         84  40  62  41 /  30  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  45  67  46 /  40  10   0  30
GAGE OK           75  37  61  40 /  20  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  43  60  41 /  60  20   0  10
DURANT OK         79  51  66  51 /  60  40  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
700 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM STROUD TO MARIETTA...
WHILE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE...TO
ALTUS...AND MUNDAY TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BUT THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TOWARD MIDDAY NEAR
INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE MODERATE
RISK AREA AFTER 3 PM.

IMPACTS...
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND 65 MPH ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WHILE SUPERCELLS WITH BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...75 MPH WINDS
AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE RISK
AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL INTERSECT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. BY MIDDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR PONCA
CITY AND WEATHERFORD...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM WEATHERFORD TO
VERNON TEXAS...BY WHICH TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER
DEVELOP OR INCREASE AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES. MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MODERATE
RISK AREA BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
LIKELY AS STORMS ENCOUNTER EVEN GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
SHEAR...WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 01.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
EXTREME WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA DUE TO WARM...DRY...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY TO THE WEST
OF INTERSTATE 35 AND AGAIN THURSDAY EAST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE
...TO WEATHERFORD...AND VERNON TEXAS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RISK AREA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND DRYLINE REACH WESTERN EDGES OF THE RISK AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON TODAY.

JAMES

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