Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

FORECAST FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS STATES. CURRENT CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA AND FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS
ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET NOSE...ALONG WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND STRONG 40 TO 50 KNOT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT WAS DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. QUASI
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE REGION UNTIL
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PULLS IT NORTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH GOOD LOW TO
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS...AND 40 KNOT PLUS LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE...TO BRING MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW AN AREA OF STORMS...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AT THIS TIME...COMING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A SECOND AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING.

WOULD EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEAN LAYER CAPE
VALUES APPROACH 2500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES ALSO HIGH...WITH 20
TO 30 KNOTS A GOOD BET. MEAN LAYER LCLS REMAIN LOW AS WELL. SO
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE GOOD. WILL MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN FORECAST.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A GOOD BET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY MOIST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SLOW PROPAGATION OF CELLS FROM MESO BETA
ELEMENTS DATA ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ORIENTATION OF SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES PARALLEL TO THE STEERING LEVEL FLOW AS
WELL. GROUND IS SATURATED FROM PAST CONVECTION. WILL EXTEND FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING...TO TIME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ALL IN ALL...MORE FLASH
FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAY SEE ANOTHER MCS GO THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
ON MONDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY NOW WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES,
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST. IN FACT...THE CHANCY
WORDING WILL REMAIN IN MOST PERIODS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO PICKY THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVR AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD...EXCEPT IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. STUBBORN BOUNDARY
FINALLY SAGS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-
     056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...05/DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
155 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-081315-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
155 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN THREAT. TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE.

MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...OR
FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL LEAD TO MORE FLASH FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND URBAN
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-081315-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
155 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DAVIS
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TAYCHEEDAH              43.81N 88.40W
06/08/2008  M0.91 INCH       FOND DU LAC        WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL BETWEEN 730 AM AND 1100 AM

&&

FRANKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1126 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW GREENFIELD         42.98N 88.03W
06/08/2008  E64 MPH          MILWAUKEE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

FRANKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1128 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 AM     TSTM WND GST     WEST ALLIS              43.01N 88.03W
06/08/2008  E50 MPH          MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FRANKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1134 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     FLASH FLOOD      RICHMOND                42.72N 88.75W
06/08/2008                   WALWORTH           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING AT COUNTY ROAD A AND STATE ROAD 89

&&

FRANKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1136 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MUKWONAGO               42.87N 88.33W
06/08/2008                   WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING AT STATE ROAD 83 AND INTERSTATE 43

&&

FRANKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LANNON                  43.15N 88.16W
06/08/2008  M1.19 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.19 OVER PAST 2 HOURS...STORM TOTAL IS 4.53 SINCE
            YESTERDAY

&&

FRANKS