Alert archive / Montana / Tornado Watches in 2007

Tornado Watch 400

June 16, 200726 counties in Montana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 16, 2007, 2:18 PM MDT for 26 counties in Montana. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 16, 2007, 2:18 PM MDT (20:18 UTC)
Expired
Jun 16, 2007, 10:00 PM MDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 26 counties

Big Horn County, MT, Blaine County, MT, Broadwater County, MT, Carbon County, MT, Cascade County, MT, Chouteau County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Gallatin County, MT, Golden Valley County, MT, Hill County, MT, Jefferson County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT, Lewis and Clark County, MT, Liberty County, MT, Madison County, MT, Meagher County, MT, Musselshell County, MT, Park County, MT, Petroleum County, MT, Phillips County, MT, Pondera County, MT, Stillwater County, MT, Sweet Grass County, MT, Teton County, MT, Wheatland County, MT, Yellowstone County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
80%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
50%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

21 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 16, 3:00 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXBlaine60 min
Jun 16, 3:20 PM MDTTornado WarningGGWPhillips55 min
Jun 16, 3:21 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXCascade54 min
Jun 16, 3:28 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXLewis and Clark47 min
Jun 16, 4:14 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXMeagher46 min
Jun 16, 4:14 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXCascade31 min
Jun 16, 4:15 PM MDTTornado WarningGGWPhillips60 min
Jun 16, 4:27 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXLewis and Clark48 min
Jun 16, 4:41 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZGolden Valley, Stillwater, Sweet Grass49 min
Jun 16, 4:41 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXCascade, Chouteau64 min
Jun 16, 5:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXJudith Basin62 min
Jun 16, 5:14 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXLewis and Clark23 min
Jun 16, 5:25 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZStillwater, Yellowstone65 min
Jun 16, 5:31 PM MDTTornado WarningTFXJudith Basin29 min
Jun 16, 5:42 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXCascade, Meagher48 min
Jun 16, 6:01 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXChouteau, Fergus, Judith Basin59 min
Jun 16, 6:26 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZYellowstone79 min
Jun 16, 7:01 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTFXJudith Basin29 min
Jun 16, 7:47 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWPhillips58 min
Jun 16, 8:58 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWPhillips10 min
Jun 16, 9:03 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWPhillips, Valley57 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2007-06-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 9 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2007-06-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 35 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-155 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1294 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000
WWUS20 KWNS 162020
SEL0  
SPC WW 162020
MTZ000-170400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       CENTRAL MONTANA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
GREAT FALLS MONTANA TO 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BILLINGS MONTANA. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING. ENVIRONMENT STRONGLY FAVORS SUPERCELLS WITH VERY STRONG
SHEAR AND INCREASING MLCAPE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  LARGE
HAIL...SOME EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE STORMS.  TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS STORMS INTERACT WITH
ELY SURFACE WINDS AND RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL MT.  LATER THIS EVENING...ONE OR MORE BOW ECHO
COMPLEXES MAY EVOLVE INCREASING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.


...EVANS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 16, 1:37 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Broadwater, Carbon, Cascade, Chouteau, Fergus and 17 more53 min
Jun 16, 2:53 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Powder River2 hr
Jun 16, 4:10 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCCarter, Custer, Daniels, Dawson, Fallon, Garfield and 10 more9 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Montana, 2007Every tornado watch in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.