Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES...MAINLY EAST OF
GREAT FALLS. THUS A TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. AT THIS TIME...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT DO TO SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT ON EXTENDED SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST HAS
INCREASED FROM LAST NIGHT. STILL...WENT WITH CONSERVATIVE CHANGES
TOWARD THE GFS (AND NEWER ECMWF) SOLUTION AND WILL SEE WHAT TOMORROW
NIGHT BRINGS BEFORE MAKING BIGGER CHANGES. MODELS ARE NOW BOTH
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED
EASTWARD AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW MARCHES TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLOMBIA. FLOW THROUGH THE RIDGE
SHOULD BE JUST DIRTY ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION SO ONLY LOWERED POPS A LITTLE. ALSO WARMED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY...AGAIN BEING CONSERVATIVE WITH MY CHANGES FOR NOW. THOMSON

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THUS...MONTANA WILL BE UNDER A RATHER MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WARMER THAN
SEASONAL AVERAGE ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILLIAMSON DC

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1742Z.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE AFTER 18Z AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE A STARTING POINT FOR CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING. LATE IN THE EVENING CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST...BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ROUTES.
THOMSON/MEIER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  66  42  71 /  70  40  30  20
CTB  47  62  40  68 /  60  40  30  20
HLN  52  70  45  72 /  70  30  20  20
BZN  50  69  40  70 /  50  40  30  20
WEY  42  64  34  61 /  30  20  30  20
DLN  49  69  38  69 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  54  67  45  72 /  70  40  40  20
LWT  52  65  42  67 /  80  50  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
229 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

MTZ011>015-045>055-172030-
HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-
MADISON-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
229 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE TO
THE EAST. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS
ALSO THE RISK OF A TORNADO.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR ANY
UPDATED FORECASTS...WATCHES...OR WARNINGS THAT COULD BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY ON THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008>010-044-172030-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-TOOLE-
229 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
122 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 N HAVRE              48.72N 109.68W
06/16/2007  E60 MPH          HILL               MT   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

&&

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             5 N GILDFORD            48.64N 110.30W
06/16/2007  E0.75 INCH       HILL               MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED GROUND AND DAMAGED WINTER WHEAT CROP.

&&

SAUCIER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             6 SW HOGELAND           48.79N 108.75W
06/16/2007  M0.25 INCH       BLAINE             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAUCIER

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