Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Great Falls, MT

June 16, 2007Meagher County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 16, 2007, 4:14 PM MDT for Meagher County, Montana. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2007, 4:14 PM MDT (22:14 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2007, 5:00 PM MDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Meagher County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 16, 2:18 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -155 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1294 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KTFX 162214
SVRTFX
MTC059-162300-
/O.NEW.KTFX.SV.W.0027.070616T2214Z-070616T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
414 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN MEAGHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA...

* UNTIL 500 PM MDT

* AT 413 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WOLF CREEK...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER RURAL AREAS OF
  NORTHWESTERN MEAGHER COUNTY.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4703 11110 4700 11106 4700 11099 4681 11143
      4690 11159 4697 11150 4700 11141 4701 11117
      4709 11115 4709 11108

$$

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS55 KTFX 162241
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
441 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

MTC059-162300-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-070616T2300Z/
MEAGHER MT-
441 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MEAGHER COUNTY...

AT 440 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MEAGHER COUNTY...OR ABOUT 32 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4703 11110 4700 11106 4697 11095 4689 11084
      4685 11117 4683 11139 4691 11146 4697 11150
      4700 11141 4701 11117 4709 11115 4709 11108

$$

BRUSDA

000 
WWUS55 KTFX 162301
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
502 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

MTC059-162312-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-070616T2300Z/
MEAGHER MT-
502 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEAGHER COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 500 PM MDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD EXITED THE WARNED AREA...THUS THE
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4703 11110 4700 11106 4697 11095 4689 11084
      4685 11117 4683 11139 4691 11146 4697 11150
      4700 11141 4701 11117 4709 11115 4709 11108

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 16, 3:00 PM MDT, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 3:00 PM MDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES...MAINLY EAST OF
GREAT FALLS. THUS A TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT SNOW TO FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. AT THIS TIME...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT DO TO SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT ON EXTENDED SO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST HAS
INCREASED FROM LAST NIGHT. STILL...WENT WITH CONSERVATIVE CHANGES
TOWARD THE GFS (AND NEWER ECMWF) SOLUTION AND WILL SEE WHAT TOMORROW
NIGHT BRINGS BEFORE MAKING BIGGER CHANGES. MODELS ARE NOW BOTH
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED
EASTWARD AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW MARCHES TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLOMBIA. FLOW THROUGH THE RIDGE
SHOULD BE JUST DIRTY ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION SO ONLY LOWERED POPS A LITTLE. ALSO WARMED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY...AGAIN BEING CONSERVATIVE WITH MY CHANGES FOR NOW. THOMSON

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THUS...MONTANA WILL BE UNDER A RATHER MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WARMER THAN
SEASONAL AVERAGE ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILLIAMSON DC

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1742Z.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE AFTER 18Z AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE A STARTING POINT FOR CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING. LATE IN THE EVENING CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF
FROM THE WEST...BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ROUTES.
THOMSON/MEIER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  66  42  71 /  70  40  30  20
CTB  47  62  40  68 /  60  40  30  20
HLN  52  70  45  72 /  70  30  20  20
BZN  50  69  40  70 /  50  40  30  20
WEY  42  64  34  61 /  30  20  30  20
DLN  49  69  38  69 /  30  20  10  10
HVR  54  67  45  72 /  70  40  40  20
LWT  52  65  42  67 /  80  50  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 2:29 PM MDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
229 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

MTZ011>015-045>055-172030-
HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-
MADISON-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
229 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE TO
THE EAST. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS
ALSO THE RISK OF A TORNADO.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR ANY
UPDATED FORECASTS...WATCHES...OR WARNINGS THAT COULD BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY ON THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ008>010-044-172030-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-TOOLE-
229 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 16, 3:40 PM MDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
340 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     HAIL             SIMMS                   47.49N 111.93W
06/16/2007  E0.50 INCH       CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED HALF INCH HAIL FALLING.

&&

BRUSDA

Local storm report, Jun 16, 3:44 PM MDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
344 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 W SILVER CITY         46.76N 112.19W
06/16/2007  E0.50 INCH       LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED DIME SIZE HAIL FALLING.

&&

BRUSDA

Local storm report, Jun 16, 3:47 PM MDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
347 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             SILVER CITY             46.76N 112.17W
06/16/2007  M0.50 INCH       LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAUCIER

Local storm report, Jun 16, 3:51 PM MDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
351 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             1 SSE SIMMS             47.48N 111.92W
06/16/2007  M0.75 INCH       CASCADE            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAUCIER

Local storm report, Jun 16, 4:08 PM MDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
408 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             HAUSER DAM              46.76N 111.89W
06/16/2007  E0.75 INCH       LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED PENNY SIZE HAIL FALLING.

0357 PM     HAIL             CUT BANK                48.63N 112.33W
06/16/2007  M1.00 INCH       GLACIER            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL IN THE CITY OF CUT BANK.

&&

BRUSDA

Local storm report, Jun 16, 4:12 PM MDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
412 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             12 S TURNER             48.67N 108.41W
06/16/2007  M1.00 INCH       BLAINE             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERED GROUND TO ONE INCH
            DEPTH. WINTER WHEAT CROP DESTROYED.

&&

SAUCIER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 11:51 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Hill, Liberty	54 min
Jun 16, 12:45 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Hill	45 min
Jun 16, 2:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	55 min
Jun 16, 3:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	60 min
Jun 16, 3:21 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade	54 min
Jun 16, 3:28 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Lewis and Clark	47 min
Jun 16, 4:14 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade	31 min
Jun 16, 4:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Lewis and Clark	48 min
Jun 16, 4:41 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Chouteau	64 min
Jun 16, 5:13 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Judith Basin	62 min
Jun 16, 5:14 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Lewis and Clark	23 min
Jun 16, 5:31 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	TFX	Judith Basin	29 min
Jun 16, 5:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Meagher	48 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.