Tornado Warning 1, NWS Glasgow, MT

000 
WWUS55 KGGW 162152
SVSGGW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
351 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

MTC071-162215-
/O.CON.KGGW.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070616T2215Z/
PHILLIPS-
351 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT FOR NORTHERN
PHILLIPS COUNTY...

AT 347 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTH OF DODSON...OR ABOUT 23 MILES 
NORTHWEST OF MALTA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WAGNER AROUND 410 PM MDT.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4877 10834 4834 10842 4811 10760 4871 10759

$$

SCT
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
315 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
TORNADO WATCH ALREADY ISSUED FOR CENTRAL MONTANA...INCLUDING
WESTERN TWO COUNTIES OF CWA. SINGLE VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY...WITH INDICATIONS OF HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF
GREAT FALLS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MOISTURE RICH UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER EAST CENTRAL MONTANA.

UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY LIKELY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES ON MONDAY
TO CONTINUE POSSIBILITY OF WET WEATHER...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED MODELS BEGIN ON THE SAME PAGE AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALL THE BIG WAVES REMAIN IN SYNC
WITH RESPECT TO TIME. THE LATEST HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
DOES NOT RECOMMEND AGAINST ANY MODEL. IN FACT THEIR FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS. SO THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS.

THE BEGINNING PERIOD WILL SEE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SKIP ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AND AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WHEN AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST DOWN FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA DURING
THE WEEKEND.

THE INHERITED GRIDS HAVE LOW POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS
THROUGHOUT...WHICH FITS THE EXPECTED PATTERN WELL. THEREFORE MADE
FEW CHANGES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE BY MID WEEK. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT...THUS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS THE JET REMAINS OVERHEAD ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE EXITING TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING IN. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WARMING AND DRYING
CONDITIONS...SO TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CROSSING NORTHEASTERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S. OVERALL THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE APPEARS TO BE
STABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...SO POPS WERE LOWERED
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS
TO JUST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PUTS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY APPEAR TO STAY JUST AS
WARM AS FRIDAY. AJZ

&&

.AVIATION...
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA UNDER RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ANY OF THESE SEVERE
STORMS CAN EXPECT LOCAL HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF OVER 50 KNOTS. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO IFR...BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES...AND CEILINGS TO BELOW
1K FT.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THE STORMS SHOULD TURN MOSTLY TO RAIN.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY SO THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST BY NOON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
357 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

MTZ016>027-059>062-171000-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
357 AM MDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR DETAILS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY...WHICH MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.