Tornado Warning 37, NWS Norman, OK

000 
WWUS54 KOUN 060515
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKC153-060524-
/O.CAN.KOUN.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-070506T0530Z/
WOODWARD OK-
1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...THE TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WOODWARD COUNTY...

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED THE TORANDOES EARLIER IN WOODWARD COUNTY HAS 
WEAKENED AND THE THREAT OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED.

LAT...LON 3635 9929 3625 9920 3639 9896 3660 9896

$$

..SPEG.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.SHORT TERM...
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK IN PROGRESS WITH HIGHER-END
POTENTIAL FROM NW OK NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING
SW FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY PROVIDING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN REGION
OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /CAPES 3000-5000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF DRYLINE.
UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO BACK SOME IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROF
DROPPING INTO AZ/NM TONIGHT... WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF STORMS OFF THE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT. HIGHER POPS
THUS ARE CONFINED TO W PARTS OF THE CWA... AND ESPECIALLY NW OK.
BACKED UPPER FLOW ALSO WILL LEAD TO ANVIL SEEDING OF DOWNWIND
STORMS BASED ON CURRENT ORIENTATION OF CORES ALONG THE DRYLINE.
STORMS LIKELY TO INITIATE FARTHER S DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO OR
THROUGH W TX... EVENTUALLY AFFECTING SW OK AND OUR N TX ZONES.
WEAKER FORCING ALOFT AND LESS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY KEEP THE MORE
SOUTHERN STORMS RELATIVELY ISOLATED. THIS ALONG WITH MORE VEERED
UPPER FLOW RAISES CONCERNS THAT STORMS FARTHER S WILL HAVE EQUAL
OR GREATER TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL THAN THE ONES FROM N OK
NORTHWARD.

LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS FARTHER S AND E TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO
ANOTHER SETUP FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ON SUNDAY FARTHER S AND E
TOWARD MIDDLE THIRD OF OK AND SW INTO N TX. MLCAPES NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXTREME AS THOSE OBSERVED TODAY - WITH 1000-2000 J/KG MORE
LIKELY. DRYLINE WILL SLOSH BACK W TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ON SUNDAY... ALONG WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT IN THE MOIST SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE.
DESPITE BACKED UPPER FLOW EXPECTED... LOW LEVELS ALSO ARE
FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENTLY BACKED TO PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR
POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS. HARD TO PINPOINT RELATIVE GREATER RISK AREAS
ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 24

.LONG TERM...
S END OF WESTERN TROF LIKELY TO BE SLOW IN COMING OUT AS
CUTOFF DEVELOPS OFF SE COAST AND UPSTREAM PATTERN BECOMES BLOCKED.
TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG MODELS BUT MORE BLOCKY PATTERN
ARGUES FOR SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.
POPS THUS ARE EXTENDED INTO THU. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE
RELATIVELY LIMITED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... LONG-TERM POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE ON MULTIPLE TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES
DURING THE WEEK DUE TO ANTECEDENT WET GROUND AND PROLONGED
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL TRENDS
ARE TO BRING RIDGING INTO THE S PLAINS BY FRI-SAT... THUS WARMER
WITH LOWER POPS. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE BASED HEAVILY ON
MEX MOS GUIDANCE. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  69  80  65 /  20  30  50  60
HOBART OK         85  67  83  63 /  30  40  60  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  71  84  68 /  20  30  50  60
GAGE OK           84  62  80  58 /  40  60  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     83  70  82  67 /  20  40  50  70
DURANT OK         84  70  85  68 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
748 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
748 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO SAYRE
OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AND IS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CUSHING... TO DUNCAN... TO NORMAN... TO
ARCHER CITY.

TIMING...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN TO INITIATE OR CONTINUE SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH... AND
TORNADOES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. DAMAGING LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY THIS EVENING EAST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY DRY LINE ACROSS
THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS  WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS... AND TORNADOES THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN NUMBER LATER TONIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET STREAM STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS... BUT THE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGER FARTHER EAST... WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE EASTWARD SPREAD OF STORMS INTO EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING UNDER THE LARGER AND
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH THE DRYLINE AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY.
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER... THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN INCREASING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TORNADO          10 SSE ARNETT           36.00N 99.70W
05/05/2007                   ELLIS              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED BY ELLIS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TORNADO          18 SSW HARMON           35.90N 99.68W
05/05/2007                   ELLIS              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO HOUSES DESTROYED IN THE PACKSADDLE AREA.

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1058 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     TORNADO          VICI                    36.15N 99.30W
05/05/2007                   DEWEY              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR VICI.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             1 S SHARON              36.26N 99.34W
05/05/2007  E1.75 INCH       WOODWARD           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     HAIL             5 E SHARON              36.28N 99.25W
05/05/2007  E1.75 INCH       WOODWARD           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKZ011-060500-
MAJOR OK-
1131 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR MAJOR COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NORTH OF MUTUAL... OR
ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOUSE JUNCTION AT 1131 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN
MAJOR COUNTY AND AFFECT AREAS NEAR BOUSE JUNCTION AND THE GLASS
MOUNTAINS. MOTORISTS SHOULD STAY OFF HIGHWAY 412 BETWEEN ORIENTA AND
MOORELAND AND HIGHWAY 281 BETWEEN CHESTER AND WAYNOKA.

PEOPLE IN MAJOR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER.

..SPEG.