Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.UPDATE...
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN N TX THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WX THREAT
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN GIVEN RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AND NNEWD
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. MANY IN WESTERN OK...ESPECIALLY NW
OK..HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH FFG
VALUES FAIRLY LOW. THUS WILL GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF OK SWD INTO WRN N TX WITH BOTH FLASH
FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING A CONCERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  79  64  78 /  70  70  60  50
HOBART OK         66  80  60  77 /  60  60  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  82  66  81 /  60  60  60  50
GAGE OK           58  72  54  75 /  60  50  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     67  76  66  78 /  70  70  60  50
DURANT OK         68  82  67  83 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SEYMOUR TO ELECTRA IN
TEXAS...TO CHICKASHA...GUTHRIE...AND PONCA CITY IN OKLAHOMA. THIS
INCLUDES WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA CITY.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE...AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...TO PRODUCE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS...BUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL JUST BRUSH THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND HEATING.

HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO THE AREA NEAR WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED BY HEATING WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED. DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR DECREASES FARTHER EAST...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE REGION. STORM INTERACTIONS MAY
DETERMINE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE...BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY...WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES.

A MORE CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
WHERE A DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS IN THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WHERE THE CAP STRENGTH MAY KEEP
STORMS MORE ISOLATED. HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...VERY DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND MAY BE A
FOCUS FOR STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. IF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
CAN BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. STORMS WILL MOVE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS APPROACHING
INTERSTATES 44 AND 35 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN AREAS THAT ARE
AFFECTED BY REPEAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO THE
WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE LOCATION OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK... THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY. MORE FREQUENT UPDATES MAY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

BURKE/SMITH

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