Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE MCS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE AN
ALREADY COMPLICATED FORECAST. THE BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THAT
THE MCS WILL DRAG ITSELF SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. A SUBTLE JET MAX THAT SEEMS TO BE
SHOWN ON WV SATELLITE MAY CAUSE A TEMPORARY FLARE-UP ON THE LINE
OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING... ALTHOUGH ITS EFFECTS MAY
INSTEAD BE TOO FAR WEST TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE.

BY AFTERNOON... MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE SLOWLY RETROGRADING LONGWAVE TROUGH
TO OUR WEST. THEY ALSO ALL PORTRAY A BULGING DRYLINE JUST WEST OF
OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS ALL POINTS TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... PARTICULARLY
IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE SPC MODERATE RISK. LARGE VALUES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE PROBABILITY OF TRAINING STORMS SUGGEST
THAT SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE QUITE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE CLOSER TO A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INSTEAD OF -- OR IN ADDITION TO -- THE DRYLINE.

AFTER TONIGHT... THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS THAT THE ENTIRE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE EAST... SO A FEW
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS... WEATHER... QPF... AND EVEN
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOWER PROGRESS.
HOWEVER... DUE TO LIMITED TIME FOR THIS FORECAST... NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE PAST DAY 3. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE
THE NEED TO EXTEND POPS LATER IN THE WEEK.

UNLESS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS DO SOMETHING COMPLETELY UNEXPECTED... A
FLOOD WATCH APPEARS INEVITABLE AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. REPEATED MCS EVENTS OVER NEARLY THE SAME AREAS SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF TOTAL RAINFALL... SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA. HPC
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 5- TO 6-INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS
SEEMS QUITE DOABLE IF THE SYSTEM IS AS SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS THE
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGEST. THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY WITH
LOCATION AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION PRECLUDES A WATCH AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  65  78  63 /  50  70  70  60
HOBART OK         83  63  75  60 /  60  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  68  80  63 /  40  60  60  60
GAGE OK           80  58  73  52 /  70  60  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     82  67  79  62 /  50  70  70  70
DURANT OK         85  68  83  67 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

32/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD... TO
WATONGA... TO HOBART... TO MANGUM. THE SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THE
MODERATE RISK AND IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHANDLER... TO PAULS
VALLEY... TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN TO INITIATE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THEM INTO THE NIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESENCE OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR
AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS... AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA. MEANWHILE... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN AREAS THAT ARE
AFFECTED BY REPEAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO THE
WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST. DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE LOCATION OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK... THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

CJS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

OKZ021-033-034-061130-
BECKHAM OK-GREER OK-HARMON OK-
611 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM...GREER AND HARMON
COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TEXOLA AT 611
AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS LIKELY PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

PEOPLE IN BECKHAM...GREER AND HARMON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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